TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043830
Played Aug 31Finished
Oleksandr Naida
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181113711118114
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 95 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 56.6%
95 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 67–72 Dmytro Derevynskyi Oleksandr Naida has won 67 of their 139 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-72 in 139
Derevynskyi
Wrong
gap of 5 in 139, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1446 vs Derevynskyi 1552
Derevynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 20% vs Derevynskyi 40%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 30% vs Derevynskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida -1 · Derevynskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 2.10 / Derevynskyi 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13043830
Naida2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 97 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back27% 33 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 63
Derevynskyi1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 196 of 333
Up 2–0, closes it90% 90 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it73% 138 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida5wins
AwayDerevynskyi5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaida83.3%5 of 6
AwayDerevynskyi100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida6Derevynskyi4n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S2Naida3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Naida6Derevynskyi4n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S4Naida3Derevynskyi5n = 8Derevynskyi took 5 of 8
S5Naida2Derevynskyi1n = 3Naida took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaDerevynskyiN − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.739.0−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime484 / 940 vs 465 / 84751.5%54.9%484 / 940 vs 465 / 847Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiNaida 2.10/Derevynskyi 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 22:05O. Naida—1111101062D. Derevynskyi—971212113
WJul 27 · 24:55O. Naida—11512113D. Derevynskyi—9111051
LJul 15 · 20:25O. Naida—5911111D. Derevynskyi—11115133
LJul 14 · 02:55O. Naida—911091D. Derevynskyi—11911113
WJul 8 · 14:25O. Naida—1110911133D. Derevynskyi—912113112
LJul 8 · 02:55O. Naida—9580D. Derevynskyi—1111113
LJul 7 · 02:55O. Naida—8101351D. Derevynskyi—111211113
WJul 1 · 16:25O. Naida—1110116113D. Derevynskyi—71221192
WJul 1 · 24:05O. Naida—1112113D. Derevynskyi—91050
WJun 29 · 23:55O. Naida—11612113D. Derevynskyi—7111051
O. Naida10
LSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113LSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830LSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133LSep 1 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.101111113O. Naida1.679940WSep 1 · 24:55O. Naida2.10311511113D. Derevynskyi1.6711211162WAug 31 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.509111110112O. Naida1.50117812133WAug 31 · 22:25O. Naida2.6311612113S. Abalmaz1.447111071
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113LSep 1 · 24:55O. Naida2.10311511113D. Derevynskyi1.6711211162
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