TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13051345
Played Aug 31Finished
Oleksandr Naida
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1176111210117––
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:56 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 65.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 41–65 Spartak Abalmaz Oleksandr Naida has won 41 of their 106 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Abalmaz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-65 in 106
Abalmaz
Wrong
gap of 24 in 106, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1460 vs Abalmaz 1634
Abalmaz
Wrong
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 40% vs Abalmaz 80%
Abalmaz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 40% vs Abalmaz 60%
Abalmaz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida +1 · Abalmaz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Abalmaz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 2.63 / Abalmaz 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Abalmaz)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13051345
Naida2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 97 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back27% 33 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 63
Abalmaz1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 171 of 291
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it76% 125 of 165
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida3wins
AwayAbalmaz7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaidan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayAbalmaz77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida1Abalmaz9n = 10Abalmaz took 9 of 10
S2Naida4Abalmaz6n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S3Naida6Abalmaz4n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S4Naida2Abalmaz4n = 6Abalmaz took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaAbalmazN − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match34.338.4−4.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime485 / 941 vs 418 / 82251.5%50.9%485 / 941 vs 418 / 822Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazNaida 2.63/Abalmaz 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 02:55O. Naida—7950S. Abalmaz—1111113
WAug 26 · 03:35O. Naida—981111113S. Abalmaz—11114692
LAug 24 · 22:25O. Naida—613100S. Abalmaz—1115123
LAug 21 · 04:25O. Naida—8111051S. Abalmaz—11712113
WAug 18 · 23:05O. Naida—51211113S. Abalmaz—1110671
LAug 17 · 22:25O. Naida—881191S. Abalmaz—11119113
LAug 13 · 22:25O. Naida—8151111102S. Abalmaz—1113813123
LAug 11 · 19:55O. Naida—381181S. Abalmaz—11119113
WAug 11 · 24:55O. Naida—1112113S. Abalmaz—81040
LAug 7 · 04:25O. Naida—10140S. Abalmaz—1211113
O. Naida10
LSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113LSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830LSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133LSep 1 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.101111113O. Naida1.679940WSep 1 · 24:55O. Naida2.10311511113D. Derevynskyi1.6711211162WAug 31 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.509111110112O. Naida1.50117812133WAug 31 · 03:55O. Naida2.101111711113D. Derevynskyi1.6781311842
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113LSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120WSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180WSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113WSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113
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