TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067714
Played Sep 4Finished
Roman Gnoevoy
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101159111113711
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Gnoevoy above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 100 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Roman Gnoevoy 45–50 Spartak Abalmaz Roman Gnoevoy has won 45 of their 95 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Abalmaz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-50 in 95
Abalmaz
Correct
gap of 5 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gnoevoy 1566 vs Abalmaz 1600
Abalmaz
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gnoevoy 80% vs Abalmaz 40%
Gnoevoy
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gnoevoy 70% vs Abalmaz 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gnoevoy +2 · Abalmaz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Abalmaz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGnoevoy 1.91 / Abalmaz 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Abalmaz)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13067714
Gnoevoy1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog49% won 111 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 69
Abalmaz1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 176 of 296
Up 2–0, closes it94% 80 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it77% 130 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGnoevoy5wins
AwayAbalmaz5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGnoevoy75%3 of 4
AwayAbalmaz66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gnoevoy4Abalmaz6n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S2Gnoevoy6Abalmaz4n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S3Gnoevoy6Abalmaz4n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S4Gnoevoy5Abalmaz2n = 7Gnoevoy took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGnoevoyAbalmazG − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.636.5+0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGnoevoyAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 813 vs 425 / 83350.4%51%410 / 813 vs 425 / 833Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazGnoevoy 1.91/Abalmaz 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 16:05R. Gnoevoy—6580S. Abalmaz—1111113
LAug 28 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy—107111142S. Abalmaz—121186113
WAug 14 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy—11115113S. Abalmaz—891131
WAug 11 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy—61112113S. Abalmaz—1181041
WAug 11 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy—61121113S. Abalmaz—1151951
WAug 7 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy—1111113S. Abalmaz—9890
LAug 5 · 02:05R. Gnoevoy—511881S. Abalmaz—11611113
LAug 4 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy—11951282S. Abalmaz—7111110113
LJul 30 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy—891131S. Abalmaz—11115113
WJul 29 · 01:05R. Gnoevoy—1411113S. Abalmaz—12960
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182WSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680WSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113WSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.7341270R. Gnoevoy2.001114113WSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161LSep 1 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.4061217113R. Gnoevoy2.7511101591LSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113WSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120WSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180WSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113WSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113WSep 1 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.2011811123D. Derevynskyi1.617118101
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