TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055834
Played Sep 2Finished
Roman Gnoevoy
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1148111311118––
Serhii Skachenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRoman Gnoevoy above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Roman Gnoevoy 5–5 Serhii Skachenko Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:24What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Skachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gnoevoy 1548 vs Skachenko 1532
Gnoevoy
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gnoevoy 60% vs Skachenko 40%
Gnoevoy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gnoevoy 60% vs Skachenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gnoevoy +2 · Skachenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gnoevoy) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skachenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGnoevoy 1.83 / Skachenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gnoevoy)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13055834
Gnoevoy1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Skachenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGnoevoy5wins
AwaySkachenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGnoevoy80%4 of 5
AwaySkachenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gnoevoy5Skachenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Gnoevoy7Skachenko3n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S3Gnoevoy6Skachenko4n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S4Gnoevoy3Skachenko4n = 7Skachenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGnoevoySkachenkoG − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.536.3+2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGnoevoySkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 820 vs 114 / 28850.2%39.6%412 / 820 vs 114 / 288Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GnoevoyGnoevoy 1.83/Skachenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy—4101161S. Skachenko—11126113
WAug 11 · 14:55R. Gnoevoy—71111113S. Skachenko—117971
LAug 10 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy—71315141S. Skachenko—111117163
LAug 4 · 22:05R. Gnoevoy—7990S. Skachenko—1111113
WAug 4 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy—1111113S. Skachenko—4390
LJul 31 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy—811111062S. Skachenko—118912113
WJul 21 · 22:35R. Gnoevoy—11118113S. Skachenko—751171
LJul 20 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy—12711952S. Skachenko—1011411113
WJun 13 · 24:25R. Gnoevoy—11119123S. Skachenko—7511101
WMar 17 · 19:25R. Gnoevoy—1111113S. Skachenko—8880
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182LSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113WSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680WSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113WSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.7341270R. Gnoevoy2.001114113WSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161LSep 1 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.4061217113R. Gnoevoy2.7511101591LSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113WSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133
S. Skachenko10
WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470LSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113LAug 28 · 18:35S. Skachenko1.839111121V. Khamurda1.8311138113WAug 28 · 17:05S. Skachenko1.831211143S. Abalmaz1.83106120LAug 28 · 15:35S. Skachenko1.6711591672O. Naida2.104111114113WAug 28 · 14:05S. Skachenko1.91117811113R. Gnoevoy1.8051111982WAug 28 · 12:35S. Skachenko1.8011911153T. Ponomarenko1.913115131LAug 28 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.8311711892S. Abalmaz1.83611511113
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