TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022691
Played Aug 28Finished
Serhii Skachenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116711115811911
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Skachenko above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 90 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Skachenko 9–5 Spartak Abalmaz Spartak Abalmaz has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:59What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Abalmaz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Skachenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skachenko 1522 vs Abalmaz 1594
Abalmaz
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skachenko 40% vs Abalmaz 60%
Abalmaz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skachenko 50% vs Abalmaz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skachenko -3 · Abalmaz +2
Skachenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skachenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkachenko 1.83 / Abalmaz 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skachenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13022691
Skachenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Abalmaz1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkachenko6wins
AwayAbalmaz4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSkachenko leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkachenko100%5 of 5
AwayAbalmaz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skachenko5Abalmaz5n = 10split evenly
S2Skachenko8Abalmaz2n = 10Skachenko took 8 of 10
S3Skachenko3Abalmaz7n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S4Skachenko2Abalmaz8n = 10Abalmaz took 8 of 10
S5Skachenko5Abalmaz1n = 6Skachenko took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkachenkoAbalmazS − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.545.7−1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkachenkoAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 278 vs 412 / 81239.2%50.7%109 / 278 vs 412 / 812Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoSkachenko 1.83/Abalmaz 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 03:35S. Skachenko—1011116113S. Abalmaz—12871182
LAug 18 · 04:25S. Skachenko—1111651S. Abalmaz—13811113
WAug 11 · 13:25S. Skachenko—19115113S. Abalmaz—1741161
LAug 11 · 04:25S. Skachenko—811791S. Abalmaz—11711113
WAug 4 · 23:35S. Skachenko—127148113S. Abalmaz—1011121182
WAug 3 · 23:25S. Skachenko—1111410123S. Abalmaz—791112102
WJul 31 · 04:25S. Skachenko—119911113S. Abalmaz—91111882
LJul 22 · 24:05S. Skachenko—71111652S. Abalmaz—119711113
WJul 21 · 03:55S. Skachenko—191139133S. Abalmaz—1741111112
LJul 15 · 19:25S. Skachenko—811981S. Abalmaz—11611113
S. Skachenko10
LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470LSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113LAug 28 · 18:35S. Skachenko1.839111121V. Khamurda1.8311138113WAug 28 · 17:05S. Skachenko1.831211143S. Abalmaz1.83106120LAug 28 · 15:35S. Skachenko1.6711591672O. Naida2.104111114113WAug 28 · 14:05S. Skachenko1.91117811113R. Gnoevoy1.8051111982WAug 28 · 12:35S. Skachenko1.8011911153T. Ponomarenko1.913115131
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113LSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120WSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180WSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113WSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192LAug 28 · 17:05S. Skachenko1.831211143S. Abalmaz1.83106120
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