TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031625
Played Aug 28Finished
Serhii Skachenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101161412––––
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Skachenko above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 65 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Skachenko 9–6 Spartak Abalmaz Spartak Abalmaz has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:58What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Abalmaz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Skachenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skachenko 1509 vs Abalmaz 1632
Abalmaz
Wrong
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skachenko 40% vs Abalmaz 80%
Abalmaz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skachenko 40% vs Abalmaz 60%
Abalmaz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skachenko -1 · Abalmaz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkachenko 1.83 / Abalmaz 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skachenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13031625
Skachenko1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Abalmaz1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkachenko6wins
AwayAbalmaz4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderSkachenko leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkachenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayAbalmaz75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skachenko6Abalmaz4n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S2Skachenko7Abalmaz3n = 10Skachenko took 7 of 10
S3Skachenko4Abalmaz6n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S4Skachenko2Abalmaz8n = 10Abalmaz took 8 of 10
S5Skachenko5Abalmaz2n = 7Skachenko took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkachenkoAbalmazS − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.546.2−0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkachenkoAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 282 vs 414 / 81539.4%50.8%111 / 282 vs 414 / 815Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoSkachenko 1.83/Abalmaz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 04:25S. Skachenko—11711892S. Abalmaz—611511113
WAug 19 · 03:35S. Skachenko—1011116113S. Abalmaz—12871182
LAug 18 · 04:25S. Skachenko—1111651S. Abalmaz—13811113
WAug 11 · 13:25S. Skachenko—19115113S. Abalmaz—1741161
LAug 11 · 04:25S. Skachenko—811791S. Abalmaz—11711113
WAug 4 · 23:35S. Skachenko—127148113S. Abalmaz—1011121182
WAug 3 · 23:25S. Skachenko—1111410123S. Abalmaz—791112102
WJul 31 · 04:25S. Skachenko—119911113S. Abalmaz—91111882
LJul 22 · 24:05S. Skachenko—71111652S. Abalmaz—119711113
WJul 21 · 03:55S. Skachenko—191139133S. Abalmaz—1741111112
S. Skachenko10
LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470LSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113LAug 28 · 18:35S. Skachenko1.839111121V. Khamurda1.8311138113LAug 28 · 15:35S. Skachenko1.6711591672O. Naida2.104111114113WAug 28 · 14:05S. Skachenko1.91117811113R. Gnoevoy1.8051111982WAug 28 · 12:35S. Skachenko1.8011911153T. Ponomarenko1.913115131LAug 28 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.8311711892S. Abalmaz1.83611511113
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113LSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120WSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180WSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113WSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WAug 28 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.8311711892S. Abalmaz1.83611511113
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