TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055854
Played Sep 2Finished
Tymur Ponomarenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8118111719––––
Serhii Skachenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:24 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 17-19
Point 74 set 3, 17-19 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 57.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 3–5 Serhii Skachenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:24What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Skachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Skachenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1414 vs Skachenko 1522
Skachenko
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Skachenko 40%
Skachenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 10% vs Skachenko 40%
Skachenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Skachenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Skachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skachenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.10 / Skachenko 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Skachenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13055854
Ponomarenko2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 32 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Skachenko1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 34 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it67% 24 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePonomarenko3wins
AwaySkachenko5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderSkachenko leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkachenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko3Skachenko5n = 8Skachenko took 5 of 8
S2Ponomarenko3Skachenko5n = 8Skachenko took 5 of 8
S3Ponomarenko4Skachenko4n = 8split evenly
S4Ponomarenko1Skachenko6n = 7Skachenko took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoSkachenkoP − SBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match38.043.0−5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoSkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 362 vs 113 / 28755%39.4%199 / 362 vs 113 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoPonomarenko 2.10/Skachenko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 28 · 12:35T. Ponomarenko—3115131S. Skachenko—11911153
LAug 19 · 24:35T. Ponomarenko—10711101S. Skachenko—12116123
WAug 17 · 22:55T. Ponomarenko—131197113S. Skachenko—119111182
LAug 11 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko—114881S. Skachenko—91111113
WAug 11 · 24:25T. Ponomarenko—131811113S. Skachenko—1516561
LAug 5 · 01:35T. Ponomarenko—9511131S. Skachenko—11116153
LJul 16 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko—8330S. Skachenko—1111113
WJul 14 · 22:25T. Ponomarenko—115119113S. Skachenko—81191182
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161WSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113LSep 1 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.301111135113T. Ponomarenko3.4055151162LSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73691111113T. Ponomarenko2.0011117782
S. Skachenko10
LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181LSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470LSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113LAug 28 · 18:35S. Skachenko1.839111121V. Khamurda1.8311138113WAug 28 · 17:05S. Skachenko1.831211143S. Abalmaz1.83106120LAug 28 · 15:35S. Skachenko1.6711591672O. Naida2.104111114113WAug 28 · 14:05S. Skachenko1.91117811113R. Gnoevoy1.8051111982WAug 28 · 12:35S. Skachenko1.8011911153T. Ponomarenko1.913115131LAug 28 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.8311711892S. Abalmaz1.83611511113
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