TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067721
Played Sep 3Finished
Vitalii Khamurda
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911118112116––
Tymur Ponomarenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:48 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeVitalii Khamurda to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Khamurda above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Vitalii Khamurda at 54.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Khamurda 11–10 Tymur Ponomarenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:48What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ponomarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khamurda 1570 vs Ponomarenko 1419
Khamurda
Correct
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khamurda 20% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khamurda 50% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Khamurda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khamurda +1 · Ponomarenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Khamurda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhamurda 1.83 / Ponomarenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Khamurda)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13067721
Khamurda1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Ponomarenko1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhamurda5wins
AwayPonomarenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhamurda66.7%2 of 3
AwayPonomarenko57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khamurda3Ponomarenko7n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Khamurda6Ponomarenko4n = 10Khamurda took 6 of 10
S3Khamurda5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Khamurda3Ponomarenko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhamurdaPonomarenkoK − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.833.9−0.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhamurdaPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime460 / 876 vs 200 / 36552.5%54.8%460 / 876 vs 200 / 365Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhamurdaKhamurda 1.83/Ponomarenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Khamurda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Khamurda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda—91111113T. Ponomarenko—118261
LSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda—711691T. Ponomarenko—11911113
WSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda—691111113T. Ponomarenko—11117782
WAug 30 · 21:55V. Khamurda—1111113T. Ponomarenko—9570
LAug 28 · 16:35V. Khamurda—5890T. Ponomarenko—1111113
LAug 26 · 03:05V. Khamurda—411761T. Ponomarenko—11811113
LAug 21 · 01:25V. Khamurda—147961T. Ponomarenko—121111113
WAug 18 · 22:35V. Khamurda—41111113T. Ponomarenko—116831
LAug 18 · 03:25V. Khamurda—106100T. Ponomarenko—1211123
WAug 13 · 21:25V. Khamurda—1111113T. Ponomarenko—9950
V. Khamurda10
WSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182WSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830WSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151LSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 2 · 03:25V. Khamurda3.4011114113V. Panasenko1.30771161LSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.7341270R. Gnoevoy2.001114113LSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113LSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113LSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113WSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73691111113T. Ponomarenko2.0011117782
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120WSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161WSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113LSep 1 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.301111135113T. Ponomarenko3.4055151162LSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73691111113T. Ponomarenko2.0011117782
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