TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055741
Played Sep 1Finished
Vitalii Khamurda
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119611911––
Tymur Ponomarenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeVitalii Khamurda to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Khamurda above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Vitalii Khamurda at 54.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Khamurda 10–9 Tymur Ponomarenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:06What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Khamurda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khamurda 1590 vs Ponomarenko 1405
Khamurda
Wrong
both rated, 186 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khamurda 60% vs Ponomarenko 0%
Khamurda
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khamurda 80% vs Ponomarenko 0%
Khamurda
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khamurda -1 · Ponomarenko -5
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Khamurda) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhamurda 1.73 / Ponomarenko 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Khamurda)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13055741
Khamurda1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 115 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it98% 53 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it77% 69 of 90
Ponomarenko2.00
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 32 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhamurda4wins
AwayPonomarenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhamurda50%2 of 4
AwayPonomarenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khamurda4Ponomarenko6n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S2Khamurda5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Khamurda5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Khamurda3Ponomarenko3n = 6split evenly
S5Khamurda1Ponomarenko2n = 3Ponomarenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhamurdaPonomarenkoK − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.436.2−1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhamurdaPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime465 / 885 vs 198 / 36052.5%55%465 / 885 vs 198 / 360Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhamurdaKhamurda 1.73/Ponomarenko 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Khamurda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda—691111113T. Ponomarenko—11117782
WAug 30 · 21:55V. Khamurda—1111113T. Ponomarenko—9570
LAug 28 · 16:35V. Khamurda—5890T. Ponomarenko—1111113
LAug 26 · 03:05V. Khamurda—411761T. Ponomarenko—11811113
LAug 21 · 01:25V. Khamurda—147961T. Ponomarenko—121111113
WAug 18 · 22:35V. Khamurda—41111113T. Ponomarenko—116831
LAug 18 · 03:25V. Khamurda—106100T. Ponomarenko—1211123
WAug 13 · 21:25V. Khamurda—1111113T. Ponomarenko—9950
LAug 11 · 18:25V. Khamurda—56111162T. Ponomarenko—111185113
LAug 11 · 03:25V. Khamurda—11116592T. Ponomarenko—581111113
V. Khamurda10
WSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182WSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830WSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151LSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 03:25V. Khamurda3.4011114113V. Panasenko1.30771161LSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.7341270R. Gnoevoy2.001114113LSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113LSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113WSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73691111113T. Ponomarenko2.0011117782
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161LSep 1 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.301111135113T. Ponomarenko3.4055151162LSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73691111113T. Ponomarenko2.0011117782
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