TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055955
Played Sep 2Finished
Roman Gnoevoy
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117114811116––
Tymur Ponomarenko
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Gnoevoy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Gnoevoy above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Roman Gnoevoy 4–4 Tymur Ponomarenko Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Gnoevoy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gnoevoy 1525 vs Ponomarenko 1422
Gnoevoy
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gnoevoy 60% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Gnoevoy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gnoevoy 50% vs Ponomarenko 10%
Gnoevoy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gnoevoy -2 · Ponomarenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Gnoevoy) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGnoevoy 1.61 / Ponomarenko 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Gnoevoy)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13055955
Gnoevoy1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 85 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it96% 43 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it75% 60 of 80
Ponomarenko2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 32 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeGnoevoy4wins
AwayPonomarenko4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGnoevoy60%3 of 5
AwayPonomarenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gnoevoy5Ponomarenko3n = 8Gnoevoy took 5 of 8
S2Gnoevoy5Ponomarenko3n = 8Gnoevoy took 5 of 8
S3Gnoevoy7Ponomarenko1n = 8Gnoevoy took 7 of 8
S4Gnoevoy1Ponomarenko4n = 5Ponomarenko took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricGnoevoyPonomarenkoG − PBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match36.633.8+2.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGnoevoyPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 820 vs 199 / 36150.2%55.1%412 / 820 vs 199 / 361Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GnoevoyGnoevoy 1.61/Ponomarenko 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 14 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy—91111672T. Ponomarenko—119611113
WAug 11 · 20:25R. Gnoevoy—1111123T. Ponomarenko—45100
LAug 10 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy—2714111T. Ponomarenko—111112133
LAug 7 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy—111111522T. Ponomarenko—413611113
LAug 5 · 24:05R. Gnoevoy—119931T. Ponomarenko—51111113
WJul 18 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy—1111113T. Ponomarenko—6540
WJul 1 · 19:53R. Gnoevoy—1111113T. Ponomarenko—6850
WJul 1 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy—91211113T. Ponomarenko—1110991
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182LSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113WSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680WSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113WSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.7341270R. Gnoevoy2.001114113LSep 1 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.4061217113R. Gnoevoy2.7511101591LSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113WSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193WSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113LSep 1 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.301111135113T. Ponomarenko3.4055151162LSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73691111113T. Ponomarenko2.0011117782
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