TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067386
Played Sep 4Finished
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012811114118311
Tymur Ponomarenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:38 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 89 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 54.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 8–8 Tymur Ponomarenko Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1583 vs Ponomarenko 1403
Derevynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 80% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 70% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi +3 · Ponomarenko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.80 / Ponomarenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13067386
Derevynskyi1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 195 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it90% 88 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it72% 136 of 190
Ponomarenko1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 34 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi6wins
AwayPonomarenko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi57.1%4 of 7
AwayPonomarenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi7Ponomarenko3n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S2Derevynskyi6Ponomarenko4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Derevynskyi7Ponomarenko3n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Derevynskyi6Ponomarenko4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S5Derevynskyi0Ponomarenko4n = 4Ponomarenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiPonomarenkoD − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.742.2+0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime473 / 861 vs 200 / 36754.9%54.5%473 / 861 vs 200 / 367Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.80/Ponomarenko 1.91
Miss
What we said
54.3%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi—11711133T. Ponomarenko—6118111
WAug 31 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi—11119113T. Ponomarenko—961181
WAug 26 · 02:05D. Derevynskyi—101411113T. Ponomarenko—1212871
WAug 17 · 21:25D. Derevynskyi—14613113T. Ponomarenko—12111141
LAug 14 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi—61111852T. Ponomarenko—117911113
LAug 9 · 24:35D. Derevynskyi—11116852T. Ponomarenko—971111113
WJul 17 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi—11814113T. Ponomarenko—9111291
LJul 13 · 21:25D. Derevynskyi—12712912T. Ponomarenko—10111011113
LJul 10 · 23:35D. Derevynskyi—111110392T. Ponomarenko—761211113
WJul 1 · 13:25D. Derevynskyi—71111133T. Ponomarenko—1168111
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113LSep 2 · 04:05D. Derevynskyi1.57711111692K. Hrynenko2.25114518113
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161WSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113LSep 1 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.301111135113T. Ponomarenko3.4055151162LSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73691111113T. Ponomarenko2.0011117782
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