TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067754
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Naida
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311611811––––
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:57 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 50 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 55.8%
50 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 67–72 Dmytro Derevynskyi Oleksandr Naida has won 67 of their 139 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-72 in 139
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 5 in 139, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1449 vs Derevynskyi 1583
Derevynskyi
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 20% vs Derevynskyi 80%
Derevynskyi
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 50% vs Derevynskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida -4 · Derevynskyi +2
Naida
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 2.10 / Derevynskyi 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13067754
Naida2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 99 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back28% 34 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 61
Derevynskyi1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 195 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it90% 88 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it72% 136 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida5wins
AwayDerevynskyi5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaida83.3%5 of 6
AwayDerevynskyi100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida6Derevynskyi4n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S2Naida3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Naida6Derevynskyi4n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S4Naida3Derevynskyi5n = 8Derevynskyi took 5 of 8
S5Naida2Derevynskyi1n = 3Naida took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaDerevynskyiN − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.739.0−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 934 vs 473 / 86151.4%54.9%480 / 934 vs 473 / 861Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiNaida 2.10/Derevynskyi 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 22:05O. Naida—1111101062D. Derevynskyi—971212113
WJul 27 · 24:55O. Naida—11512113D. Derevynskyi—9111051
LJul 15 · 20:25O. Naida—5911111D. Derevynskyi—11115133
LJul 14 · 02:55O. Naida—911091D. Derevynskyi—11911113
WJul 8 · 14:25O. Naida—1110911133D. Derevynskyi—912113112
LJul 8 · 02:55O. Naida—9580D. Derevynskyi—1111113
LJul 7 · 02:55O. Naida—8101351D. Derevynskyi—111211113
WJul 1 · 16:25O. Naida—1110116113D. Derevynskyi—71221192
WJul 1 · 24:05O. Naida—1112113D. Derevynskyi—91050
WJun 29 · 23:55O. Naida—11612113D. Derevynskyi—7111051
O. Naida10
LSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113LSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830LSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133LSep 1 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.101111113O. Naida1.679940WSep 1 · 24:55O. Naida2.10311511113D. Derevynskyi1.6711211162WAug 31 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.509111110112O. Naida1.50117812133WAug 31 · 22:25O. Naida2.6311612113S. Abalmaz1.447111071WAug 31 · 03:55O. Naida2.101111711113D. Derevynskyi1.6781311842
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113LSep 1 · 24:55O. Naida2.10311511113D. Derevynskyi1.6711211162LAug 31 · 03:55O. Naida2.101111711113D. Derevynskyi1.6781311842
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