TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073946
Played Sep 4Finished
Yan Krol
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611811––––
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:49 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYan Krol above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 63.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 30–58 Dmytro Derevynskyi Yan Krol has won 30 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-58 in 88
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 28 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1578 vs Derevynskyi 1583
Derevynskyi
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 60% vs Derevynskyi 80%
Derevynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 50% vs Derevynskyi 80%
Derevynskyi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol -1 · Derevynskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Derevynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 2.63 / Derevynskyi 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13073946
Krol2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 64 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Derevynskyi1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 196 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it90% 88 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it72% 136 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol4wins
AwayDerevynskyi6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKroln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDerevynskyi62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol2Derevynskyi8n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S2Krol6Derevynskyi4n = 10Krol took 6 of 10
S3Krol2Derevynskyi8n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Krol4Derevynskyi4n = 8split evenly
S5Krol4Derevynskyi2n = 6Krol took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolDerevynskyiK − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.242.1−0.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 583 vs 474 / 86350.8%54.9%296 / 583 vs 474 / 863Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiKrol 2.63/Derevynskyi 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 03:05Y. Krol—68130D. Derevynskyi—1111153
LAug 15 · 01:35Y. Krol—611481D. Derevynskyi—11311113
LAug 9 · 04:05Y. Krol—8690D. Derevynskyi—1111113
LAug 1 · 01:35Y. Krol—611711102D. Derevynskyi—116113123
WJul 29 · 04:05Y. Krol—1011811113D. Derevynskyi—12911262
LJul 25 · 21:35Y. Krol—911121192D. Derevynskyi—117147113
WJul 23 · 02:35Y. Krol—11101011133D. Derevynskyi—912127112
WJul 21 · 02:50Y. Krol—912119113D. Derevynskyi—111091162
WJul 21 · 24:03Y. Krol—1111116113D. Derevynskyi—13741182
LJul 11 · 03:05Y. Krol—117461D. Derevynskyi—81111113
Y. Krol10
WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990LSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113WSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101LSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol2.001112113O. Gomilko1.7361090LAug 30 · 04:05K. Hrynenko2.101212133Y. Krol1.671010110
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113LSep 2 · 04:05D. Derevynskyi1.57711111692K. Hrynenko2.25114518113
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