TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043166
Played Aug 30Finished
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
121012101311––––
Yan Krol
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:55 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeYan Krol to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Yan Krol below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 68 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Yan Krol at 56.2%
68 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 38–55 Yan Krol Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 38 of their 93 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:55What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Krol
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-55 in 93
Krol
Wrong
gap of 17 in 93, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1612 vs Krol 1591
Hrynenko
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 60% vs Krol 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 50% vs Krol 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko -1 · Krol +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Krol)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 2.10 / Krol 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Krol)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13043166
Hrynenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 155 of 364
Down 0–1, comes back26% 51 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 102
Krol1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 76 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrynenko2wins
AwayKrol8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrol leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKrol75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko2Krol8n = 10Krol took 8 of 10
S2Hrynenko5Krol5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrynenko6Krol4n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S4Hrynenko1Krol8n = 9Krol took 8 of 9
S5Hrynenko2Krol3n = 5Krol took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrynenkoKrolH − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.944.1−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoKrolBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 902 vs 299 / 58746.6%50.9%420 / 902 vs 299 / 587Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrolHrynenko 2.10/Krol 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Krol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 02:35K. Hrynenko—11611672Y. Krol—511711113
LAug 22 · 01:35K. Hrynenko—971291Y. Krol—111110113
LAug 16 · 24:35K. Hrynenko—411110Y. Krol—1113133
WAug 14 · 21:05K. Hrynenko—411119113Y. Krol—11851152
WAug 8 · 01:35K. Hrynenko—811414113Y. Krol—118111282
LAug 1 · 22:05K. Hrynenko—91112872Y. Krol—1151011113
LJul 27 · 23:55K. Hrynenko—10131151Y. Krol—12154113
LJul 24 · 22:35K. Hrynenko—11610111Y. Krol—91112133
LJul 23 · 04:05K. Hrynenko—9115101Y. Krol—11611123
LJul 21 · 13:25K. Hrynenko—31111982Y. Krol—119911113
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113WSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990WSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113LSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113LSep 4 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.25910100O. Gomilko1.571112123
Y. Krol10
WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990LSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113WSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101LSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol2.001112113O. Gomilko1.7361090LSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113
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