TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078948
Played Sep 6Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141183111412––
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 61.1% is still 61.1%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
61.1%
61.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 74 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 61.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 17–10 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 10 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:39What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-10 in 27
Lobas
Correct
gap of 7 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1643 vs Hrynenko 1676
Hrynenko
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 60% vs Hrynenko 80%
Hrynenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 60% vs Hrynenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas +1 · Hrynenko +4
Hrynenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Lobas) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.53 / Hrynenko 2.38
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Lobas)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13078948
Lobas1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 109 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it78% 88 of 113
Hrynenko2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 153 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back26% 48 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas4wins
AwayHrynenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHrynenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas50%3 of 6
AwayHrynenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas6Hrynenko4n = 10Lobas took 6 of 10
S2Lobas3Hrynenko7n = 10Hrynenko took 7 of 10
S3Lobas6Hrynenko4n = 10Lobas took 6 of 10
S4Lobas3Hrynenko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasHrynenkoL − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.733.8+0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 397 vs 423 / 90357.2%46.8%227 / 397 vs 423 / 903Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.53/Hrynenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.8%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 02:05V. Lobas—1111113K. Hrynenko—8850
LAug 30 · 24:05V. Lobas—4711111K. Hrynenko—11115133
WAug 29 · 02:05V. Lobas—11311113K. Hrynenko—511841
WAug 22 · 21:05V. Lobas—61111113K. Hrynenko—112851
LAug 21 · 22:05V. Lobas—1111941K. Hrynenko—41311113
LAug 15 · 21:35V. Lobas—121081152K. Hrynenko—1012115113
LAug 14 · 23:05V. Lobas—1113111042K. Hrynenko—615812113
LAug 2 · 01:35V. Lobas—3850K. Hrynenko—1111113
LJul 24 · 21:35V. Lobas—710100K. Hrynenko—1112123
WJul 4 · 01:35V. Lobas—1111113K. Hrynenko—4740
V. Lobas10
LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123WSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772LSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101WAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas1.731111113O. Gomilko2.006580
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061WSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113WSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990WSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113LSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113LSep 4 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.25910100O. Gomilko1.571112123WSep 2 · 04:05D. Derevynskyi1.57711111692K. Hrynenko2.25114518113
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