TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13074035
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Melashenko
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
91112101191210––
Valentyn Lobas
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:02 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Valentyn Lobas below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 84 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 75.3%
84 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 12–29 Valentyn Lobas Oleksandr Melashenko has won 12 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:02What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Lobas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-29 in 41
Lobas
Wrong
gap of 17 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1479 vs Lobas 1617
Lobas
Wrong
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 20% vs Lobas 40%
Lobas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 40% vs Lobas 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko -4 · Lobas +1
Melashenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Lobas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobas form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 3.25 / Lobas 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Lobas)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13074035
Melashenko3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 106 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back22% 39 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 93
Lobas1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 108 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 57 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it78% 87 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko2wins
AwayLobas8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLobas leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLobas88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko1Lobas9n = 10Lobas took 9 of 10
S2Melashenko3Lobas7n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S3Melashenko6Lobas4n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S4Melashenko2Lobas5n = 7Lobas took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoLobasM − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match31.339.4−8.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoLobasBasisWin rate · lifetime431 / 851 vs 222 / 38950.7%57.1%431 / 851 vs 222 / 389Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasMelashenko 3.25/Lobas 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.3%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melashenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 01:35O. Melashenko—11711113V. Lobas—811741
LAug 23 · 24:05O. Melashenko—10340V. Lobas—1211113
LAug 21 · 23:05O. Melashenko—9840V. Lobas—1111113
WAug 15 · 02:05O. Melashenko—21111113V. Lobas—117981
LAug 2 · 03:05O. Melashenko—11121121V. Lobas—13149113
LJul 25 · 01:05O. Melashenko—911111092V. Lobas—117912113
LJul 11 · 23:35O. Melashenko—1012361V. Lobas—121011113
LJul 10 · 23:05O. Melashenko—491191V. Lobas—11119113
LJul 4 · 21:05O. Melashenko—12470V. Lobas—1411113
LJul 3 · 22:05O. Melashenko—541261V. Lobas—111110113
O. Melashenko10
LSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113LSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113LSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101WSep 5 · 24:35O. Melashenko1.9114116113O. Gomilko1.801271141WSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113LSep 2 · 03:05O. Melashenko2.10111176102S. Khandetskyi1.67771111123
V. Lobas10
LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123WSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas1.731111113O. Gomilko2.006580
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