TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13074034
Played Sep 5Finished
Yan Krol
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111161171210––
Oleksandr Melashenko
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:59 and never touched — 77.4% is still 77.4%
Graded at full timeYan Krol to win
77.4%
77.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYan Krol above · Oleksandr Melashenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 74 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Yan Krol at 77.4%
74 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 63–9 Oleksandr Melashenko Oleksandr Melashenko has won 9 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:59What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Krol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
63-9 in 72
Krol
Correct
gap of 54 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1569 vs Melashenko 1528
Krol
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 40% vs Melashenko 60%
Melashenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 50% vs Melashenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol -1 · Melashenko +3
Melashenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Krol) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 1.28 / Melashenko 3.50
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Krol)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13074034
Krol1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 77 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it81% 51 of 63
Melashenko3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 106 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back22% 39 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol10wins
AwayMelashenko0wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrol leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrol100%7 of 7
AwayMelashenko0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol7Melashenko3n = 10Krol took 7 of 10
S2Krol6Melashenko4n = 10Krol took 6 of 10
S3Krol8Melashenko2n = 10Krol took 8 of 10
S4Krol6Melashenko1n = 7Krol took 6 of 7
S5Krol3Melashenko0n = 3Krol took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolMelashenkoK − MBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.836.3+6.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolMelashenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 586 vs 434 / 85450.7%50.8%297 / 586 vs 434 / 854Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrolKrol 1.28/Melashenko 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Krol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 04:05Y. Krol—1111113O. Melashenko—6990
WAug 21 · 21:05Y. Krol—115811113O. Melashenko—81111662
WAug 15 · 03:05Y. Krol—7111011123O. Melashenko—118128102
WAug 7 · 21:05Y. Krol—1112113O. Melashenko—91080
WAug 2 · 02:05Y. Krol—11811133O. Melashenko—3118111
WJul 26 · 24:35Y. Krol—61111233O. Melashenko—1199211
WJul 24 · 21:05Y. Krol—136119113O. Melashenko—111181182
WJul 23 · 24:35Y. Krol—1111113O. Melashenko—9790
WJul 21 · 14:55Y. Krol—11911113O. Melashenko—411791
WJul 20 · 22:33Y. Krol—81511113O. Melashenko—1113721
Y. Krol10
WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990LSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113LSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol2.001112113O. Gomilko1.7361090LSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113LAug 30 · 04:05K. Hrynenko2.101212133Y. Krol1.671010110
O. Melashenko10
LSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113LSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 24:35O. Melashenko1.9114116113O. Gomilko1.801271141WSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113WSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101LSep 2 · 03:05O. Melashenko2.10111176102S. Khandetskyi1.67771111123
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