TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073989
Played Sep 5Finished
Yan Krol
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
101210121012––––
Valentyn Lobas
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYan Krol above · Valentyn Lobas below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 66 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 34–34 Valentyn Lobas Dead even across their 68 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:01What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-34 in 68
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1582 vs Lobas 1611
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 60% vs Lobas 40%
Krol
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 60% vs Lobas 40%
Krol
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol +1 · Lobas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lobas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobas form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 1.91 / Lobas 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lobas)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073989
Krol1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 64 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Lobas1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 108 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 57 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it78% 87 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol6wins
AwayLobas4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrol leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrol100%3 of 3
AwayLobas57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol3Lobas7n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S2Krol7Lobas3n = 10Krol took 7 of 10
S3Krol3Lobas7n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S4Krol4Lobas4n = 8split evenly
S5Krol3Lobas0n = 3Krol took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolLobasK − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.538.1−0.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolLobasBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 585 vs 223 / 39150.8%57%297 / 585 vs 223 / 391Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasKrol 1.91/Lobas 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 22:35Y. Krol—12119113V. Lobas—1051141
WAug 29 · 24:05Y. Krol—5111111113V. Lobas—11913952
WAug 22 · 22:35Y. Krol—11117113V. Lobas—971171
WAug 22 · 24:05Y. Krol—51111113V. Lobas—118891
LAug 15 · 23:35Y. Krol—911981V. Lobas—11811113
LAug 15 · 24:05Y. Krol—211771V. Lobas—11811113
WAug 9 · 24:05Y. Krol—126119113V. Lobas—101171142
WAug 2 · 24:05Y. Krol—9111110113V. Lobas—11661282
LAug 1 · 24:05Y. Krol—7490V. Lobas—1111113
LJul 25 · 03:05Y. Krol—7580V. Lobas—1111113
Y. Krol10
WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990LSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113WSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101WSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol2.001112113O. Gomilko1.7361090LSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113LAug 30 · 04:05K. Hrynenko2.101212133Y. Krol1.671010110
V. Lobas10
LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123WSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772LSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101WAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas1.731111113O. Gomilko2.006580
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