TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079107
Played Sep 5Finished
Yan Krol
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1133113111113––
Maxim Marchuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYan Krol to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYan Krol above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 66 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Yan Krol at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 68–74 Maxim Marchuk Yan Krol has won 68 of their 142 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Marchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
68-74 in 142
Marchuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 142, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1544 vs Marchuk 1494
Krol
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 40% vs Marchuk 20%
Krol
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 50% vs Marchuk 30%
Krol
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol -2 · Marchuk -3
Marchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krol)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 1.83 / Marchuk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krol)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13079107
Krol1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Marchuk1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol4wins
AwayMarchuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMarchuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrol60%3 of 5
AwayMarchuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol5Marchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Krol4Marchuk6n = 10Marchuk took 6 of 10
S3Krol8Marchuk2n = 10Krol took 8 of 10
S4Krol1Marchuk7n = 8Marchuk took 7 of 8
S5Krol2Marchuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolMarchukK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.441.0−1.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 589 vs 220 / 48050.4%45.8%297 / 589 vs 220 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrolKrol 1.83/Marchuk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krol · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol—1133111M. Marchuk—31111133
WAug 30 · 02:35Y. Krol—591111113M. Marchuk—11119852
LAug 23 · 24:35Y. Krol—21111572M. Marchuk—116711113
LAug 15 · 22:05Y. Krol—1511116142M. Marchuk—174811163
LAug 9 · 02:05Y. Krol—167531M. Marchuk—141111113
WAug 2 · 04:05Y. Krol—169117113M. Marchuk—141181142
LJul 25 · 22:35Y. Krol—8111361M. Marchuk—111311113
WJul 19 · 24:05Y. Krol—1114113M. Marchuk—71250
LJul 12 · 02:35Y. Krol—691171M. Marchuk—11115113
WJul 5 · 24:35Y. Krol—1112113M. Marchuk—71060
Y. Krol10
WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990LSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113WSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101LSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol2.001112113O. Gomilko1.7361090LSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113LAug 30 · 04:05K. Hrynenko2.101212133Y. Krol1.671010110
M. Marchuk10
LSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451LSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.67131312113M. Marchuk2.1015111091LAug 30 · 02:35Y. Krol1.73591111113M. Marchuk2.0011119852WAug 30 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.83101160M. Marchuk1.831213113LAug 29 · 23:05K. Hrynenko1.801211123M. Marchuk1.91108100LAug 29 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361411113M. Marchuk3.0012930WAug 23 · 03:35M. Marchuk1.91191111113K. Hrynenko1.8011117962
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