TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043119
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleksandr Gomilko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121113611––––
Maxim Marchuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Gomilko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Gomilko above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 63 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Oleksandr Gomilko at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Gomilko 74–73 Maxim Marchuk Maxim Marchuk has won 73 of their 147 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:47What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Marchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
74-73 in 147
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gomilko 1670 vs Marchuk 1496
Gomilko
Wrong
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gomilko 80% vs Marchuk 40%
Gomilko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gomilko 90% vs Marchuk 40%
Gomilko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gomilko +4 · Marchuk -2
Gomilko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gomilko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGomilko 1.83 / Marchuk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gomilko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13043119
Gomilko1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Marchuk1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGomilko5wins
AwayMarchuk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGomilko60%3 of 5
AwayMarchuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gomilko5Marchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Gomilko6Marchuk4n = 10Gomilko took 6 of 10
S3Gomilko5Marchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Gomilko4Marchuk5n = 9Marchuk took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGomilkoMarchukG − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.038.4−0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGomilkoMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 569 vs 222 / 48556.8%45.8%323 / 569 vs 222 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GomilkoGomilko 1.83/Marchuk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gomilko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 23:35O. Gomilko—11711113M. Marchuk—411671
LAug 16 · 24:05O. Gomilko—5101181M. Marchuk—11129113
LAug 9 · 01:05O. Gomilko—11117362M. Marchuk—961111113
LAug 2 · 02:35O. Gomilko—1011851M. Marchuk—12911113
WJul 25 · 21:05O. Gomilko—116711113M. Marchuk—61111842
WJul 19 · 03:05O. Gomilko—1311123M. Marchuk—117100
LJul 11 · 21:05O. Gomilko—119391M. Marchuk—71111113
LJul 4 · 23:35O. Gomilko—711991M. Marchuk—11711113
WJun 27 · 23:35O. Gomilko—81111113M. Marchuk—112981
WJun 20 · 21:05O. Gomilko—31118113M. Marchuk—1191681
O. Gomilko10
WSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143LSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123WSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451LSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113LSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113WSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123LSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 24:35O. Melashenko1.9114116113O. Gomilko1.801271141LSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol2.001112113O. Gomilko1.7361090WSep 4 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.25910100O. Gomilko1.571112123
M. Marchuk10
LSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451WSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.67131312113M. Marchuk2.1015111091LAug 30 · 02:35Y. Krol1.73591111113M. Marchuk2.0011119852LAug 29 · 23:05K. Hrynenko1.801211123M. Marchuk1.91108100LAug 29 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361411113M. Marchuk3.0012930WAug 23 · 03:35M. Marchuk1.91191111113K. Hrynenko1.8011117962
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