TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472250
Played Aug 23Finished
Maxim Marchuk
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
111911117119116
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeKostiantyn Hrynenko to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaxim Marchuk above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 87 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Kostiantyn Hrynenko at 59.5%
87 points played in total.
H2H Maxim Marchuk 37–40 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Maxim Marchuk has won 37 of their 77 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hrynenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-40 in 77
Hrynenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchuk 1503 vs Hrynenko 1601
Hrynenko
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchuk 40% vs Hrynenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchuk 50% vs Hrynenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchuk +1 · Hrynenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Hrynenko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchuk 1.91 / Hrynenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Hrynenko)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472250
Marchuk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 64 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Hrynenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 41 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it74% 32 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchuk5wins
AwayHrynenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayHrynenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchuk6Hrynenko4n = 10Marchuk took 6 of 10
S2Marchuk5Hrynenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Marchuk7Hrynenko3n = 10Marchuk took 7 of 10
S4Marchuk3Hrynenko2n = 5Marchuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchukHrynenkoM − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.434.6+3.8per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchukHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 490 vs 413 / 89646.3%46.1%227 / 490 vs 413 / 896Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrynenkoMarchuk 1.91/Hrynenko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Hrynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 24:35M. Marchuk—7611111K. Hrynenko—11119133
LJul 18 · 22:35M. Marchuk—12360K. Hrynenko—1411113
WMay 31 · 03:35M. Marchuk—1111113K. Hrynenko—5360
LApr 3 · 23:35M. Marchuk—72011151K. Hrynenko—11223173
WFeb 21 · 02:05M. Marchuk—111110113K. Hrynenko—851271
WFeb 8 · 01:35M. Marchuk—1111113K. Hrynenko—8670
WJan 31 · 03:05M. Marchuk—1111113K. Hrynenko—7350
LJan 24 · 22:35M. Marchuk—116811112K. Hrynenko—911118133
WJan 24 · 03:05M. Marchuk—1111113K. Hrynenko—8780
LJan 3 · 04:35M. Marchuk—149111182K. Hrynenko—161199113
M. Marchuk10
LSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451WSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.67131312113M. Marchuk2.1015111091LAug 30 · 02:35Y. Krol1.73591111113M. Marchuk2.0011119852WAug 30 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.83101160M. Marchuk1.831213113LAug 29 · 23:05K. Hrynenko1.801211123M. Marchuk1.91108100LAug 29 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361411113M. Marchuk3.0012930
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113WSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990WSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113LSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113WAug 29 · 23:05K. Hrynenko1.801211123M. Marchuk1.91108100
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