TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13042634
Played Aug 29Finished
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101181210––––
Maxim Marchuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKostiantyn Hrynenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 63 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Kostiantyn Hrynenko at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 41–39 Maxim Marchuk Maxim Marchuk has won 39 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:26What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hrynenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-39 in 80
Hrynenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1613 vs Marchuk 1496
Hrynenko
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 60% vs Marchuk 40%
Hrynenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 60% vs Marchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko +1 · Marchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hrynenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 1.80 / Marchuk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hrynenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13042634
Hrynenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 47 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Marchuk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 63 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrynenko4wins
AwayMarchuk6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMarchuk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenko80%4 of 5
AwayMarchuk100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko5Marchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Hrynenko5Marchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrynenko4Marchuk6n = 10Marchuk took 6 of 10
S4Hrynenko3Marchuk2n = 5Hrynenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrynenkoMarchukH − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.636.9−3.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 903 vs 221 / 48546.5%45.6%420 / 903 vs 221 / 485Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrynenkoHrynenko 1.80/Marchuk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hrynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 23:05K. Hrynenko—1211123M. Marchuk—108100
LAug 23 · 03:35K. Hrynenko—11117962M. Marchuk—191111113
LAug 16 · 04:05K. Hrynenko—79111142M. Marchuk—111195113
WAug 2 · 24:35K. Hrynenko—11119133M. Marchuk—7611111
WJul 18 · 22:35K. Hrynenko—1411113M. Marchuk—12360
LMay 31 · 03:35K. Hrynenko—5360M. Marchuk—1111113
WApr 3 · 23:35K. Hrynenko—11223173M. Marchuk—72011151
LFeb 21 · 02:05K. Hrynenko—851271M. Marchuk—111110113
LFeb 8 · 01:35K. Hrynenko—8670M. Marchuk—1111113
LJan 31 · 03:05K. Hrynenko—7350M. Marchuk—1111113
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113WSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990WSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113LSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113LSep 4 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.25910100O. Gomilko1.571112123
M. Marchuk10
LSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451WSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.67131312113M. Marchuk2.1015111091LAug 30 · 02:35Y. Krol1.73591111113M. Marchuk2.0011119852WAug 30 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.83101160M. Marchuk1.831213113LAug 29 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361411113M. Marchuk3.0012930WAug 23 · 03:35M. Marchuk1.91191111113K. Hrynenko1.8011117962
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