TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078952
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleksandr Melashenko
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811116117117––
Maxim Marchuk
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Melashenko to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 72 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Oleksandr Melashenko at 56.2%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 34–23 Maxim Marchuk Maxim Marchuk has won 23 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:39What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Melashenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-23 in 57
Melashenko
Correct
gap of 11 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1527 vs Marchuk 1478
Melashenko
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 40% vs Marchuk 20%
Melashenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 50% vs Marchuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko -1 · Marchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Melashenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 1.67 / Marchuk 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Melashenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13078952
Melashenko1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 87 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Marchuk2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 62 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko7wins
AwayMarchuk3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMelashenko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko100%3 of 3
AwayMarchuk42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko3Marchuk7n = 10Marchuk took 7 of 10
S2Melashenko6Marchuk4n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S3Melashenko6Marchuk4n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S4Melashenko5Marchuk3n = 8Melashenko took 5 of 8
S5Melashenko4Marchuk1n = 5Melashenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoMarchukMelashenko − MarchukBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.939.1+2.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime435 / 856 vs 220 / 48050.8%45.8%435 / 856 vs 220 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelashenkoMelashenko 1.67/Marchuk 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Melashenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melashenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 22:05O. Melashenko—1111133M. Marchuk—67110
WAug 1 · 21:35O. Melashenko—311116113M. Marchuk—11661162
WJul 26 · 01:35O. Melashenko—111110113M. Marchuk—961231
WJul 18 · 21:05O. Melashenko—11116113M. Marchuk—991171
WJul 12 · 03:35O. Melashenko—1311911113M. Marchuk—15711752
WJul 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko—1091111113M. Marchuk—12119542
LJun 21 · 03:35O. Melashenko—5760M. Marchuk—1111113
LJun 14 · 02:35O. Melashenko—58111182M. Marchuk—111169113
LJun 7 · 02:35O. Melashenko—5111181M. Marchuk—11139113
WMay 24 · 02:35O. Melashenko—13111110123M. Marchuk—157612102
O. Melashenko10
LSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872LSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113LSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113LSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101WSep 5 · 24:35O. Melashenko1.9114116113O. Gomilko1.801271141WSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113WSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101LSep 2 · 03:05O. Melashenko2.10111176102S. Khandetskyi1.67771111123
M. Marchuk10
LSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451WSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.67131312113M. Marchuk2.1015111091LAug 30 · 02:35Y. Krol1.73591111113M. Marchuk2.0011119852WAug 30 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.83101160M. Marchuk1.831213113LAug 29 · 23:05K. Hrynenko1.801211123M. Marchuk1.91108100LAug 29 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361411113M. Marchuk3.0012930WAug 23 · 03:35M. Marchuk1.91191111113K. Hrynenko1.8011117962
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