TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079184
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleksandr Gomilko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911114115––
Maxim Marchuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Gomilko to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Gomilko above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 70 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Oleksandr Gomilko at 56.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Gomilko 74–73 Maxim Marchuk Maxim Marchuk has won 73 of their 147 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:29What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gomilko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
74-73 in 147
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gomilko 1601 vs Marchuk 1494
Gomilko
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gomilko 20% vs Marchuk 40%
Marchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gomilko 30% vs Marchuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gomilko -2 · Marchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Gomilko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gomilko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGomilko 1.73 / Marchuk 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Gomilko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13079184
Gomilko1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 120 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it93% 54 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it77% 87 of 113
Marchuk2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 62 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGomilko5wins
AwayMarchuk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGomilko60%3 of 5
AwayMarchuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gomilko5Marchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Gomilko6Marchuk4n = 10Gomilko took 6 of 10
S3Gomilko5Marchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Gomilko4Marchuk5n = 9Marchuk took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGomilkoMarchukG − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.038.4−0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGomilkoMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime321 / 569 vs 220 / 48056.4%45.8%321 / 569 vs 220 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GomilkoGomilko 1.73/Marchuk 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Gomilko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gomilko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 23:35O. Gomilko—11711113M. Marchuk—411671
LAug 16 · 24:05O. Gomilko—5101181M. Marchuk—11129113
LAug 9 · 01:05O. Gomilko—11117362M. Marchuk—961111113
LAug 2 · 02:35O. Gomilko—1011851M. Marchuk—12911113
WJul 25 · 21:05O. Gomilko—116711113M. Marchuk—61111842
WJul 19 · 03:05O. Gomilko—1311123M. Marchuk—117100
LJul 11 · 21:05O. Gomilko—119391M. Marchuk—71111113
LJul 4 · 23:35O. Gomilko—711991M. Marchuk—11711113
WJun 27 · 23:35O. Gomilko—81111113M. Marchuk—112981
WJun 20 · 21:05O. Gomilko—31118113M. Marchuk—1191681
O. Gomilko10
WSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143LSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113LSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113WSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123LSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 24:35O. Melashenko1.9114116113O. Gomilko1.801271141LSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol2.001112113O. Gomilko1.7361090WSep 4 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.25910100O. Gomilko1.571112123LAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas1.731111113O. Gomilko2.006580
M. Marchuk10
LSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771WSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.67131312113M. Marchuk2.1015111091LAug 30 · 02:35Y. Krol1.73591111113M. Marchuk2.0011119852WAug 30 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.83101160M. Marchuk1.831213113LAug 29 · 23:05K. Hrynenko1.801211123M. Marchuk1.91108100LAug 29 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361411113M. Marchuk3.0012930WAug 23 · 03:35M. Marchuk1.91191111113K. Hrynenko1.8011117962
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