TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079177
Played Sep 5Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119117––––
Maxim Marchuk
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 58 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 70.8%
58 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 37–16 Maxim Marchuk Maxim Marchuk has won 16 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-16 in 53
Lobas
Correct
gap of 21 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1646 vs Marchuk 1487
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 60% vs Marchuk 20%
Lobas
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 50% vs Marchuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas -1 · Marchuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Lobas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.36 / Marchuk 3.00
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Lobas)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13079177
Lobas1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 109 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it78% 88 of 113
Marchuk3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 62 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas8wins
AwayMarchuk2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLobas leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas100%7 of 7
AwayMarchuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas7Marchuk3n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S2Lobas8Marchuk2n = 10Lobas took 8 of 10
S3Lobas7Marchuk3n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S4Lobas1Marchuk3n = 4Marchuk took 3 of 4
S5Lobas3Marchuk1n = 4Lobas took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasMarchukL − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.631.6+6.0per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 395 vs 219 / 48157.2%45.5%226 / 395 vs 219 / 481Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.36/Marchuk 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas—1111113M. Marchuk—9970
WAug 29 · 21:05V. Lobas—1411113M. Marchuk—12930
WAug 16 · 02:05V. Lobas—1112113M. Marchuk—71030
WAug 9 · 03:05V. Lobas—111198113M. Marchuk—57111132
WAug 1 · 22:35V. Lobas—1311113M. Marchuk—11990
WJul 12 · 01:05V. Lobas—1111113M. Marchuk—4720
WJul 5 · 01:35V. Lobas—1110119123M. Marchuk—812911102
LJun 28 · 03:05V. Lobas—6670M. Marchuk—1111113
LJun 21 · 01:05V. Lobas—91151152M. Marchuk—113115113
WJun 13 · 21:05V. Lobas—411115113M. Marchuk—11861182
V. Lobas10
LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123WSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772LSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101WAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas1.731111113O. Gomilko2.006580
M. Marchuk10
LSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451WSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.67131312113M. Marchuk2.1015111091LAug 30 · 02:35Y. Krol1.73591111113M. Marchuk2.0011119852WAug 30 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.83101160M. Marchuk1.831213113LAug 29 · 23:05K. Hrynenko1.801211123M. Marchuk1.91108100LAug 29 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361411113M. Marchuk3.0012930WAug 23 · 03:35M. Marchuk1.91191111113K. Hrynenko1.8011117962
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