TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078900
Played Sep 6Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119114711611119
Yan Krol
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Yan Krol below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 90 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 35–34 Yan Krol Yan Krol has won 34 of their 69 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:29What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-34 in 69
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1635 vs Krol 1544
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 60% vs Krol 20%
Lobas
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 50% vs Krol 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas -1 · Krol -3
Krol
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Lobas) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krol form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.67 / Krol 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Lobas)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13078900
Lobas1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 109 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it78% 88 of 113
Krol2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back28% 26 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas4wins
AwayKrol6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrol leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas57.1%4 of 7
AwayKrol100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas7Krol3n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S2Lobas3Krol7n = 10Krol took 7 of 10
S3Lobas7Krol3n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S4Lobas4Krol4n = 8split evenly
S5Lobas0Krol3n = 3Krol took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasKrolL − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.438.5−0.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasKrolBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 396 vs 297 / 58957.1%50.4%226 / 396 vs 297 / 589Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.67/Krol 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 24:05V. Lobas—1212123Y. Krol—1010100
LAug 29 · 22:35V. Lobas—1051141Y. Krol—12119113
LAug 29 · 24:05V. Lobas—11913952Y. Krol—5111111113
LAug 22 · 22:35V. Lobas—971171Y. Krol—11117113
LAug 22 · 24:05V. Lobas—118891Y. Krol—51111113
WAug 15 · 23:35V. Lobas—11811113Y. Krol—911981
WAug 15 · 24:05V. Lobas—11811113Y. Krol—211771
LAug 9 · 24:05V. Lobas—101171142Y. Krol—126119113
LAug 2 · 24:05V. Lobas—11661282Y. Krol—9111110113
WAug 1 · 24:05V. Lobas—1111113Y. Krol—7490
V. Lobas10
LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123WSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772LSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101WAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas1.731111113O. Gomilko2.006580
Y. Krol10
WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990LSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113WSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101LSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol2.001112113O. Gomilko1.7361090LSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113LAug 30 · 04:05K. Hrynenko2.101212133Y. Krol1.671010110
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