TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073953
Played Sep 5Finished
Yan Krol
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012115411611––
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:59 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeYan Krol to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYan Krol above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Yan Krol at 56.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 56–39 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 39 of their 95 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:59What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krol
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-39 in 95
Krol
Wrong
gap of 17 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1580 vs Hrynenko 1623
Hrynenko
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 40% vs Hrynenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 60% vs Hrynenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol +1 · Hrynenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Krol)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krol form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 1.57 / Hrynenko 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Krol)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13073953
Krol1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 77 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it81% 51 of 63
Hrynenko2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 153 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back26% 49 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol7wins
AwayHrynenko3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrol leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrol71.4%5 of 7
AwayHrynenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol7Hrynenko3n = 10Krol took 7 of 10
S2Krol5Hrynenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Krol4Hrynenko6n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S4Krol6Hrynenko2n = 8Krol took 6 of 8
S5Krol3Hrynenko2n = 5Krol took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolHrynenkoK − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.240.1+3.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 587 vs 422 / 90250.8%46.8%298 / 587 vs 422 / 902Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrolKrol 1.57/Hrynenko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Krol · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 04:05Y. Krol—1010110K. Hrynenko—1212133
WAug 29 · 03:05Y. Krol—1110118113K. Hrynenko—81251162
WAug 23 · 02:35Y. Krol—511711113K. Hrynenko—11611672
WAug 22 · 01:35Y. Krol—111110113K. Hrynenko—971291
WAug 16 · 24:35Y. Krol—1113133K. Hrynenko—411110
LAug 14 · 21:05Y. Krol—11851152K. Hrynenko—411119113
LAug 8 · 01:35Y. Krol—118111282K. Hrynenko—811414113
WAug 1 · 22:05Y. Krol—1151011113K. Hrynenko—91112872
WJul 27 · 23:55Y. Krol—12154113K. Hrynenko—10131151
WJul 24 · 22:35Y. Krol—91112133K. Hrynenko—11610111
Y. Krol10
WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990WSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101LSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol2.001112113O. Gomilko1.7361090LSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113LAug 30 · 04:05K. Hrynenko2.101212133Y. Krol1.671010110
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113WSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990LSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113LSep 4 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.25910100O. Gomilko1.571112123WAug 30 · 04:05K. Hrynenko2.101212133Y. Krol1.671010110
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