TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13042851
Played Aug 30Finished
Yan Krol
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511911119118115
Maxim Marchuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:36 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeYan Krol to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYan Krol above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 91 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Yan Krol at 54.5%
91 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 67–73 Maxim Marchuk Yan Krol has won 67 of their 140 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:36What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-73 in 140
Marchuk
Wrong
gap of 6 in 140, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1583 vs Marchuk 1517
Krol
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 60% vs Marchuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 60% vs Marchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol +2 · Marchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Krol)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 1.73 / Marchuk 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Krol)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13042851
Krol1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 76 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62
Marchuk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 63 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol4wins
AwayMarchuk6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarchuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrol80%4 of 5
AwayMarchuk100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol5Marchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Krol4Marchuk6n = 10Marchuk took 6 of 10
S3Krol8Marchuk2n = 10Krol took 8 of 10
S4Krol1Marchuk6n = 7Marchuk took 6 of 7
S5Krol1Marchuk2n = 3Marchuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolMarchukK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.838.9−0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 587 vs 222 / 48550.9%45.8%299 / 587 vs 222 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrolKrol 1.73/Marchuk 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Krol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 24:35Y. Krol—21111572M. Marchuk—116711113
LAug 15 · 22:05Y. Krol—1511116142M. Marchuk—174811163
LAug 9 · 02:05Y. Krol—167531M. Marchuk—141111113
WAug 2 · 04:05Y. Krol—169117113M. Marchuk—141181142
LJul 25 · 22:35Y. Krol—8111361M. Marchuk—111311113
WJul 19 · 24:05Y. Krol—1114113M. Marchuk—71250
LJul 12 · 02:35Y. Krol—691171M. Marchuk—11115113
WJul 5 · 24:35Y. Krol—1112113M. Marchuk—71060
LJun 28 · 02:05Y. Krol—810120M. Marchuk—1112143
WJun 20 · 23:05Y. Krol—11611113M. Marchuk—311371
Y. Krol10
WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990LSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113WSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101LSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123WSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol2.001112113O. Gomilko1.7361090LSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113
M. Marchuk10
LSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451WSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.67131312113M. Marchuk2.1015111091WAug 30 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.83101160M. Marchuk1.831213113LAug 29 · 23:05K. Hrynenko1.801211123M. Marchuk1.91108100LAug 29 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361411113M. Marchuk3.0012930WAug 23 · 03:35M. Marchuk1.91191111113K. Hrynenko1.8011117962
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