TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067398
Played Sep 3Finished
Vitalii Khamurda
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118711611811––
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Khamurda above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Khamurda 56–49 Dmytro Derevynskyi Dmytro Derevynskyi has won 49 of their 105 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:47What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-49 in 105
Khamurda
Wrong
gap of 7 in 105, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khamurda 1557 vs Derevynskyi 1562
Derevynskyi
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khamurda 40% vs Derevynskyi 80%
Derevynskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khamurda 50% vs Derevynskyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khamurda +2 · Derevynskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhamurda 1.91 / Derevynskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13067398
Khamurda1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 74 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back28% 28 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Derevynskyi1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 195 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it90% 88 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it72% 136 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhamurda6wins
AwayDerevynskyi4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKhamurda leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhamurdan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayDerevynskyi33.3%3 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khamurda1Derevynskyi9n = 10Derevynskyi took 9 of 10
S2Khamurda5Derevynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Khamurda5Derevynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Khamurda6Derevynskyi2n = 8Khamurda took 6 of 8
S5Khamurda3Derevynskyi0n = 3Khamurda took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhamurdaDerevynskyiK − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match38.039.4−1.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhamurdaDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime460 / 877 vs 472 / 86052.5%54.9%460 / 877 vs 472 / 860Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiKhamurda 1.91/Derevynskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda—117681D. Derevynskyi—81111113
WAug 31 · 22:55V. Khamurda—611913113D. Derevynskyi—118111132
WAug 31 · 01:25V. Khamurda—41211113D. Derevynskyi—1110371
WAug 26 · 24:05V. Khamurda—71111113D. Derevynskyi—119691
WAug 24 · 21:55V. Khamurda—81212113D. Derevynskyi—11101041
LAug 18 · 01:25V. Khamurda—67140D. Derevynskyi—1111163
LAug 14 · 03:25V. Khamurda—410120D. Derevynskyi—1112143
WAug 3 · 23:55V. Khamurda—411811113D. Derevynskyi—11811992
LAug 1 · 03:35V. Khamurda—751191D. Derevynskyi—11118113
WJul 29 · 24:05V. Khamurda—761111123D. Derevynskyi—111157102
V. Khamurda10
WSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182WSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830WSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 03:25V. Khamurda3.4011114113V. Panasenko1.30771161LSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.7341270R. Gnoevoy2.001114113LSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113LSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113LSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113WSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73691111113T. Ponomarenko2.0011117782
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113LSep 2 · 04:05D. Derevynskyi1.57711111692K. Hrynenko2.25114518113
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