TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055940
Played Sep 2Finished
Vitalii Khamurda
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911911––––
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:55 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Khamurda above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 60 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 65.7%
60 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Khamurda 23–47 Spartak Abalmaz Vitalii Khamurda has won 23 of their 70 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Abalmaz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-47 in 70
Abalmaz
Correct
gap of 24 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khamurda 1572 vs Abalmaz 1637
Abalmaz
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khamurda 40% vs Abalmaz 100%
Abalmaz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khamurda 70% vs Abalmaz 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khamurda -2 · Abalmaz +5
Abalmaz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Abalmaz) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhamurda 2.50 / Abalmaz 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Abalmaz)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13055940
Khamurda2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 75 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back29% 29 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 53
Abalmaz1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 174 of 296
Up 2–0, closes it94% 78 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it76% 128 of 168
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhamurda4wins
AwayAbalmaz6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhamurdan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayAbalmaz60%6 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khamurda0Abalmaz10n = 10Abalmaz took 10 of 10
S2Khamurda7Abalmaz3n = 10Khamurda took 7 of 10
S3Khamurda3Abalmaz7n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S4Khamurda3Abalmaz4n = 7Abalmaz took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhamurdaAbalmazK − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match36.339.5−3.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhamurdaAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime464 / 885 vs 423 / 82952.4%51%464 / 885 vs 423 / 829Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazKhamurda 2.50/Abalmaz 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 24:25V. Khamurda—8111091S. Abalmaz—11512113
WAug 31 · 02:25V. Khamurda—91111113S. Abalmaz—117981
WAug 28 · 15:05V. Khamurda—3111114133S. Abalmaz—1191312112
LAug 27 · 21:55V. Khamurda—1011781S. Abalmaz—12911113
LAug 25 · 21:05V. Khamurda—9890S. Abalmaz—1111113
WAug 24 · 23:55V. Khamurda—1011119113S. Abalmaz—12541192
LAug 20 · 21:55V. Khamurda—5690S. Abalmaz—1111113
LAug 18 · 21:05V. Khamurda—711481S. Abalmaz—11811113
WAug 18 · 02:25V. Khamurda—121112123S. Abalmaz—14710101
LAug 14 · 24:25V. Khamurda—4880S. Abalmaz—1111113
V. Khamurda10
WSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182WSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830WSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151LSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 03:25V. Khamurda3.4011114113V. Panasenko1.30771161LSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.7341270R. Gnoevoy2.001114113LSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113LSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113WSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73691111113T. Ponomarenko2.0011117782
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113LSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120WSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180WSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113WSep 1 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.2011811123D. Derevynskyi1.617118101
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