TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13051340
Played Sep 1Finished
Spartak Abalmaz
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1178111181210––
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:55 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSpartak Abalmaz above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 55.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Spartak Abalmaz 27–39 Dmytro Derevynskyi Spartak Abalmaz has won 27 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:55What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-39 in 66
Derevynskyi
Wrong
gap of 12 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Abalmaz 1608 vs Derevynskyi 1515
Abalmaz
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Abalmaz 60% vs Derevynskyi 20%
Abalmaz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Abalmaz 60% vs Derevynskyi 30%
Abalmaz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Abalmaz +2 · Derevynskyi -3
Derevynskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAbalmaz 2.20 / Derevynskyi 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13051340
Abalmaz2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 72 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back32% 22 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Derevynskyi1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 196 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it90% 91 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it72% 139 of 192
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAbalmaz4wins
AwayDerevynskyi6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAbalmaz75%3 of 4
AwayDerevynskyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Abalmaz4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Abalmaz4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Abalmaz4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S4Abalmaz2Derevynskyi6n = 8Derevynskyi took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAbalmazDerevynskyiA − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.2−1.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAbalmazDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 826 vs 466 / 85250.9%54.7%420 / 826 vs 466 / 852Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiAbalmaz 2.20/Derevynskyi 1.61
Miss
What we said
55.3%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 03:55S. Abalmaz—128130D. Derevynskyi—1411153
LJul 29 · 02:05S. Abalmaz—914661D. Derevynskyi—111211113
WJul 26 · 21:55S. Abalmaz—911117113D. Derevynskyi—11861152
LJul 15 · 14:55S. Abalmaz—11811101D. Derevynskyi—13116123
WJul 13 · 23:25S. Abalmaz—111199113D. Derevynskyi—98111162
LJul 8 · 20:25S. Abalmaz—77130D. Derevynskyi—1111153
LJul 8 · 03:55S. Abalmaz—1011691D. Derevynskyi—12511113
WJul 7 · 04:25S. Abalmaz—11911123D. Derevynskyi—9116101
LJul 1 · 14:55S. Abalmaz—1121061D. Derevynskyi—71112113
WJul 1 · 01:35S. Abalmaz—11711113D. Derevynskyi—711991
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113LSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120WSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180WSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113WSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113
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