TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055715
Played Sep 2Finished
Spartak Abalmaz
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111113811––––
Tymur Ponomarenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:45 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSpartak Abalmaz above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 61 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 65.2%
61 points played in total.
H2H Spartak Abalmaz 15–5 Tymur Ponomarenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:45What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Abalmaz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-5 in 20
Abalmaz
Wrong
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Abalmaz 1612 vs Ponomarenko 1426
Abalmaz
Wrong
both rated, 186 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Abalmaz 80% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Abalmaz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Abalmaz 70% vs Ponomarenko 10%
Abalmaz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Abalmaz -1 · Ponomarenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Abalmaz) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAbalmaz 1.44 / Ponomarenko 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Abalmaz)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13055715
Abalmaz1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 176 of 296
Up 2–0, closes it94% 80 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it77% 130 of 170
Ponomarenko2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog34% won 33 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAbalmaz7wins
AwayPonomarenko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAbalmaz100%5 of 5
AwayPonomarenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Abalmaz5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Abalmaz5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Abalmaz7Ponomarenko3n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S4Abalmaz4Ponomarenko3n = 7Abalmaz took 4 of 7
S5Abalmaz3Ponomarenko1n = 4Abalmaz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAbalmazPonomarenkoA − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.337.3+4.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAbalmazPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime424 / 832 vs 200 / 36451%55%424 / 832 vs 200 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazAbalmaz 1.44/Ponomarenko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz—71180T. Ponomarenko—1113113
WSep 1 · 02:25S. Abalmaz—1111113T. Ponomarenko—7690
WAug 31 · 04:25S. Abalmaz—13118113T. Ponomarenko—1191191
LAug 28 · 19:05S. Abalmaz—8111181T. Ponomarenko—11134113
WAug 26 · 01:05S. Abalmaz—9111111123T. Ponomarenko—111329102
LAug 21 · 02:55S. Abalmaz—911119102T. Ponomarenko—117311123
WAug 19 · 02:35S. Abalmaz—1211113T. Ponomarenko—10770
WAug 18 · 24:25S. Abalmaz—11511123T. Ponomarenko—8119101
WAug 13 · 23:25S. Abalmaz—116119113T. Ponomarenko—41161192
WAug 11 · 15:25S. Abalmaz—711613113T. Ponomarenko—117111152
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113LSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120WSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180WSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113WSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113WSep 1 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.2011811123D. Derevynskyi1.617118101
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161WSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113LSep 1 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.301111135113T. Ponomarenko3.4055151162LSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73691111113T. Ponomarenko2.0011117782
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