TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067640
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Naida
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911117311112511
Tymur Ponomarenko
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:28 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Naida to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 81 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Oleksandr Naida at 64.9%
81 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 13–5 Tymur Ponomarenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Naida
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-5 in 18
Naida
Wrong
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1440 vs Ponomarenko 1419
Naida
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 0% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 40% vs Ponomarenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida -5 · Ponomarenko +1
Naida
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Naida)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naida form (0%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 1.50 / Ponomarenko 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Naida)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067640
Naida1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 103 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it86% 54 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it72% 79 of 110
Ponomarenko2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 34 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida10wins
AwayPonomarenko0wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNaida leads 10–0, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaida100%7 of 7
AwayPonomarenko0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida7Ponomarenko3n = 10Naida took 7 of 10
S2Naida7Ponomarenko3n = 10Naida took 7 of 10
S3Naida8Ponomarenko2n = 10Naida took 8 of 10
S4Naida4Ponomarenko1n = 5Naida took 4 of 5
S5Naida4Ponomarenko0n = 4Naida took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaPonomarenkoN − PBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.530.7+9.8per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 935 vs 201 / 36851.3%54.6%480 / 935 vs 201 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NaidaNaida 1.50/Ponomarenko 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Naida · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 24:55O. Naida—1111113T. Ponomarenko—8850
WAug 28 · 14:35O. Naida—712118113T. Ponomarenko—111031192
WAug 25 · 23:35O. Naida—1111113T. Ponomarenko—9670
WAug 20 · 23:25O. Naida—981311113T. Ponomarenko—111111962
WAug 19 · 04:05O. Naida—116912113T. Ponomarenko—411111022
WAug 18 · 01:55O. Naida—41113113T. Ponomarenko—1181171
WAug 14 · 03:55O. Naida—1111113T. Ponomarenko—5950
WAug 11 · 14:25O. Naida—1111113T. Ponomarenko—5690
WAug 11 · 01:55O. Naida—119511113T. Ponomarenko—51111262
WAug 7 · 02:25O. Naida—1111153T. Ponomarenko—64130
O. Naida10
LSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830LSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133LSep 1 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.101111113O. Naida1.679940WSep 1 · 24:55O. Naida2.10311511113D. Derevynskyi1.6711211162WAug 31 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.509111110112O. Naida1.50117812133WAug 31 · 22:25O. Naida2.6311612113S. Abalmaz1.447111071WAug 31 · 03:55O. Naida2.101111711113D. Derevynskyi1.6781311842
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161WSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113LSep 1 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.301111135113T. Ponomarenko3.4055151162LAug 31 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.509111110112O. Naida1.50117812133
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