TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067992
Played Sep 4Finished
Vitalii Khamurda
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311118113––––
Oleksandr Naida
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Naida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Khamurda above · Oleksandr Naida below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 57 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Oleksandr Naida at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Khamurda 86–117 Oleksandr Naida Vitalii Khamurda has won 86 of their 203 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:18What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Naida
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
86-117 in 203
Naida
Wrong
gap of 31 in 203, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khamurda 1574 vs Naida 1449
Khamurda
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khamurda 60% vs Naida 0%
Khamurda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khamurda 50% vs Naida 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khamurda +1 · Naida -5
Naida
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Naida)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naida form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhamurda 2.00 / Naida 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Naida)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13067992
Khamurda2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 74 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back28% 28 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Naida1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 103 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it86% 54 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it72% 79 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhamurda2wins
AwayNaida8wins
Naida leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhamurdan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNaida100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khamurda2Naida8n = 10Naida took 8 of 10
S2Khamurda6Naida4n = 10Khamurda took 6 of 10
S3Khamurda5Naida5n = 10split evenly
S4Khamurda0Naida7n = 7Naida took 7 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away770%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhamurdaNaidaK − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.335.8−2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhamurdaNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime461 / 878 vs 480 / 93452.5%51.4%461 / 878 vs 480 / 934Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NaidaKhamurda 2.00/Naida 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Naida · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Khamurda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 01:35V. Khamurda—1111113O. Naida—5380
WAug 25 · 02:25V. Khamurda—1111113O. Naida—8680
LAug 21 · 02:25V. Khamurda—1111871O. Naida—13911113
LAug 19 · 24:05V. Khamurda—5131181O. Naida—11153113
LAug 17 · 23:55V. Khamurda—813371O. Naida—111111113
LAug 14 · 01:55V. Khamurda—761161O. Naida—11112113
LAug 11 · 15:55V. Khamurda—7119111O. Naida—11511133
LAug 10 · 23:55V. Khamurda—91011101O. Naida—11126123
LAug 7 · 24:25V. Khamurda—3111241O. Naida—11714113
LAug 5 · 02:35V. Khamurda—8880O. Naida—1111113
V. Khamurda10
WSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182WSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151LSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 03:25V. Khamurda3.4011114113V. Panasenko1.30771161LSep 2 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.7341270R. Gnoevoy2.001114113LSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113LSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113LSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113WSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.73691111113T. Ponomarenko2.0011117782
O. Naida10
LSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113LSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133LSep 1 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.101111113O. Naida1.679940WSep 1 · 24:55O. Naida2.10311511113D. Derevynskyi1.6711211162WAug 31 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.509111110112O. Naida1.50117812133WAug 31 · 22:25O. Naida2.6311612113S. Abalmaz1.447111071WAug 31 · 03:55O. Naida2.101111711113D. Derevynskyi1.6781311842
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