TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13051536
Played Aug 31Finished
Tymur Ponomarenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91111711810121113
Oleksandr Naida
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:55 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Naida to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Oleksandr Naida below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 103 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Oleksandr Naida at 64.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 5–13 Oleksandr Naida Tymur Ponomarenko has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:55What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Naida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-13 in 18
Naida
Correct
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1433 vs Naida 1487
Naida
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 0% vs Naida 60%
Naida
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 30% vs Naida 50%
Naida
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -5 · Naida +2
Ponomarenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Naida) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.50 / Naida 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Naida)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13051536
Ponomarenko2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 32 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Naida1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 104 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it86% 55 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it71% 79 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko0wins
AwayNaida10wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNaida leads 10–0, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko0%0 of 3
AwayNaida100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko3Naida7n = 10Naida took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko3Naida7n = 10Naida took 7 of 10
S3Ponomarenko2Naida8n = 10Naida took 8 of 10
S4Ponomarenko1Naida4n = 5Naida took 4 of 5
S5Ponomarenko0Naida4n = 4Naida took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoNaidaP − NBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.740.5−9.8per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 356 vs 487 / 94355.6%51.6%198 / 356 vs 487 / 943Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NaidaPonomarenko 2.50/Naida 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Naida · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 24:55T. Ponomarenko—8850O. Naida—1111113
LAug 28 · 14:35T. Ponomarenko—111031192O. Naida—712118113
LAug 25 · 23:35T. Ponomarenko—9670O. Naida—1111113
LAug 20 · 23:25T. Ponomarenko—111111962O. Naida—981311113
LAug 19 · 04:05T. Ponomarenko—411111022O. Naida—116912113
LAug 18 · 01:55T. Ponomarenko—1181171O. Naida—41113113
LAug 14 · 03:55T. Ponomarenko—5950O. Naida—1111113
LAug 11 · 14:25T. Ponomarenko—5690O. Naida—1111113
LAug 11 · 01:55T. Ponomarenko—51111262O. Naida—119511113
LAug 7 · 02:25T. Ponomarenko—64130O. Naida—1111153
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161WSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113LSep 1 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.301111135113T. Ponomarenko3.4055151162
O. Naida10
LSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113LSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830LSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133LSep 1 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.101111113O. Naida1.679940WSep 1 · 24:55O. Naida2.10311511113D. Derevynskyi1.6711211162WAug 31 · 22:25O. Naida2.6311612113S. Abalmaz1.447111071WAug 31 · 03:55O. Naida2.101111711113D. Derevynskyi1.6781311842
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