TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067706
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksandr Naida
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611611––––
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:38 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 67.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 41–65 Spartak Abalmaz Oleksandr Naida has won 41 of their 106 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:38What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Abalmaz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-65 in 106
Abalmaz
Correct
gap of 24 in 106, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1477 vs Abalmaz 1612
Abalmaz
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 60% vs Abalmaz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 50% vs Abalmaz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida -2 · Abalmaz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Abalmaz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 2.75 / Abalmaz 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Abalmaz)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067706
Naida2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 99 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back28% 34 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 61
Abalmaz1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 176 of 296
Up 2–0, closes it94% 80 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it77% 130 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida3wins
AwayAbalmaz7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaidan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayAbalmaz77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida1Abalmaz9n = 10Abalmaz took 9 of 10
S2Naida4Abalmaz6n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S3Naida6Abalmaz4n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S4Naida2Abalmaz4n = 6Abalmaz took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaAbalmazN − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match34.338.4−4.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime487 / 942 vs 424 / 83251.7%51%487 / 942 vs 424 / 832Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazNaida 2.75/Abalmaz 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 02:55O. Naida—7950S. Abalmaz—1111113
WAug 26 · 03:35O. Naida—981111113S. Abalmaz—11114692
LAug 24 · 22:25O. Naida—613100S. Abalmaz—1115123
LAug 21 · 04:25O. Naida—8111051S. Abalmaz—11712113
WAug 18 · 23:05O. Naida—51211113S. Abalmaz—1110671
LAug 17 · 22:25O. Naida—881191S. Abalmaz—11119113
LAug 13 · 22:25O. Naida—8151111102S. Abalmaz—1113813123
LAug 11 · 19:55O. Naida—381181S. Abalmaz—11119113
WAug 11 · 24:55O. Naida—1112113S. Abalmaz—81040
LAug 7 · 04:25O. Naida—10140S. Abalmaz—1211113
O. Naida10
LSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113LSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830LSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133LSep 1 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.101111113O. Naida1.679940WSep 1 · 24:55O. Naida2.10311511113D. Derevynskyi1.6711211162WAug 31 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.509111110112O. Naida1.50117812133WAug 31 · 22:25O. Naida2.6311612113S. Abalmaz1.447111071WAug 31 · 03:55O. Naida2.101111711113D. Derevynskyi1.6781311842
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113LSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180WSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113WSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113LAug 31 · 22:25O. Naida2.6311612113S. Abalmaz1.447111071
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