TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055790
Played Sep 1Finished
Spartak Abalmaz
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012119115611119
Serhii Skachenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSpartak Abalmaz above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Spartak Abalmaz 6–10 Serhii Skachenko Spartak Abalmaz has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:15What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Skachenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Abalmaz 1629 vs Skachenko 1539
Abalmaz
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Abalmaz 80% vs Skachenko 60%
Abalmaz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Abalmaz 70% vs Skachenko 40%
Abalmaz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Abalmaz +4 · Skachenko +1
Abalmaz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAbalmaz 1.91 / Skachenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skachenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13055790
Abalmaz1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 72 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back32% 22 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Skachenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 34 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it67% 24 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAbalmaz4wins
AwaySkachenko6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSkachenko leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAbalmaz75%3 of 4
AwaySkachenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Abalmaz4Skachenko6n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S2Abalmaz3Skachenko7n = 10Skachenko took 7 of 10
S3Abalmaz5Skachenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Abalmaz7Skachenko2n = 9Abalmaz took 7 of 9
S5Abalmaz2Skachenko4n = 6Skachenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAbalmazSkachenkoA − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.643.7−0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAbalmazSkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 828 vs 113 / 28551%39.7%422 / 828 vs 113 / 285Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoAbalmaz 1.91/Skachenko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 17:05S. Abalmaz—106120S. Skachenko—1211143
WAug 28 · 04:25S. Abalmaz—611511113S. Skachenko—11711892
LAug 19 · 03:35S. Abalmaz—12871182S. Skachenko—1011116113
WAug 18 · 04:25S. Abalmaz—13811113S. Skachenko—1111651
LAug 11 · 13:25S. Abalmaz—1741161S. Skachenko—19115113
WAug 11 · 04:25S. Abalmaz—11711113S. Skachenko—811791
LAug 4 · 23:35S. Abalmaz—1011121182S. Skachenko—127148113
LAug 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz—791112102S. Skachenko—1111410123
LJul 31 · 04:25S. Abalmaz—91111882S. Skachenko—119911113
WJul 22 · 24:05S. Abalmaz—119711113S. Skachenko—71111652
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113LSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120WSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180WSep 2 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.509990S. Abalmaz1.501111113WSep 1 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.915670S. Abalmaz1.801111113WSep 1 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.2011811123D. Derevynskyi1.617118101
S. Skachenko10
LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470WSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113LAug 28 · 18:35S. Skachenko1.839111121V. Khamurda1.8311138113WAug 28 · 17:05S. Skachenko1.831211143S. Abalmaz1.83106120LAug 28 · 15:35S. Skachenko1.6711591672O. Naida2.104111114113WAug 28 · 14:05S. Skachenko1.91117811113R. Gnoevoy1.8051111982WAug 28 · 12:35S. Skachenko1.8011911153T. Ponomarenko1.913115131LAug 28 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.8311711892S. Abalmaz1.83611511113
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