TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031309
Played Aug 28Finished
Serhii Skachenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1139111151513––
Tymur Ponomarenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Skachenko above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 78 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 56.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Skachenko 5–3 Tymur Ponomarenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Skachenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skachenko 1510 vs Ponomarenko 1505
Skachenko
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skachenko 20% vs Ponomarenko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skachenko 40% vs Ponomarenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skachenko -4 · Ponomarenko +1
Skachenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkachenko 1.80 / Ponomarenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skachenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13031309
Skachenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 33 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it70% 23 of 33
Ponomarenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 31 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back19% 9 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSkachenko5wins
AwayPonomarenko3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderSkachenko leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkachenko80%4 of 5
AwayPonomarenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skachenko5Ponomarenko3n = 8Skachenko took 5 of 8
S2Skachenko5Ponomarenko3n = 8Skachenko took 5 of 8
S3Skachenko4Ponomarenko4n = 8split evenly
S4Skachenko6Ponomarenko1n = 7Skachenko took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricSkachenkoPonomarenkoS − PBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match43.038.0+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkachenkoPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 284 vs 198 / 34939.4%56.7%112 / 284 vs 198 / 349Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoSkachenko 1.80/Ponomarenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 28 · 12:35S. Skachenko—11911153T. Ponomarenko—3115131
WAug 19 · 24:35S. Skachenko—12116123T. Ponomarenko—10711101
LAug 17 · 22:55S. Skachenko—119111182T. Ponomarenko—131197113
WAug 11 · 16:25S. Skachenko—91111113T. Ponomarenko—114881
LAug 11 · 24:25S. Skachenko—1516561T. Ponomarenko—131811113
WAug 5 · 01:35S. Skachenko—11116153T. Ponomarenko—9511131
WJul 16 · 23:55S. Skachenko—1111113T. Ponomarenko—8330
LJul 14 · 22:25S. Skachenko—81191182T. Ponomarenko—115119113
S. Skachenko10
LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470LSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113LAug 28 · 18:35S. Skachenko1.839111121V. Khamurda1.8311138113WAug 28 · 17:05S. Skachenko1.831211143S. Abalmaz1.83106120LAug 28 · 15:35S. Skachenko1.6711591672O. Naida2.104111114113WAug 28 · 14:05S. Skachenko1.91117811113R. Gnoevoy1.8051111982LAug 28 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.8311711892S. Abalmaz1.83611511113
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161WSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113LSep 1 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.301111135113T. Ponomarenko3.4055151162
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