TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031344
Played Aug 28Finished
Serhii Skachenko
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1145119111614711
Oleksandr Naida
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:27 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Skachenko above · Oleksandr Naida below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 16-14
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 99 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 61.3%
99 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Skachenko 10–6 Oleksandr Naida Oleksandr Naida has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Skachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Skachenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skachenko 1510 vs Naida 1461
Skachenko
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skachenko 40% vs Naida 20%
Skachenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skachenko 40% vs Naida 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skachenko +2 · Naida +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Skachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naida form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkachenko 1.67 / Naida 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Skachenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13031344
Skachenko1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 33 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it70% 23 of 33
Naida2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog45% won 96 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back27% 32 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkachenko7wins
AwayNaida3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkachenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkachenko60%3 of 5
AwayNaida20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skachenko5Naida5n = 10split evenly
S2Skachenko5Naida5n = 10split evenly
S3Skachenko5Naida5n = 10split evenly
S4Skachenko8Naida2n = 10Skachenko took 8 of 10
S5Skachenko2Naida1n = 3Skachenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkachenkoNaidaS − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.338.7+3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkachenkoNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 284 vs 483 / 93639.4%51.6%112 / 284 vs 483 / 936Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoSkachenko 1.67/Naida 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 15:35S. Skachenko—11591672O. Naida—4111114113
LAug 27 · 23:25S. Skachenko—117871O. Naida—81111113
WAug 18 · 22:05S. Skachenko—81111113O. Naida—112791
WAug 18 · 24:55S. Skachenko—11411113O. Naida—311981
LAug 11 · 17:55S. Skachenko—891191O. Naida—11118113
WAug 10 · 22:25S. Skachenko—127711113O. Naida—101111882
WAug 5 · 03:35S. Skachenko—911911113O. Naida—11411572
WAug 4 · 24:25S. Skachenko—81113113O. Naida—1181191
WJul 31 · 24:55S. Skachenko—111111113O. Naida—791391
WJul 22 · 01:35S. Skachenko—81111113O. Naida—119651
S. Skachenko10
LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470LSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113LAug 28 · 18:35S. Skachenko1.839111121V. Khamurda1.8311138113WAug 28 · 17:05S. Skachenko1.831211143S. Abalmaz1.83106120WAug 28 · 14:05S. Skachenko1.91117811113R. Gnoevoy1.8051111982WAug 28 · 12:35S. Skachenko1.8011911153T. Ponomarenko1.913115131LAug 28 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.8311711892S. Abalmaz1.83611511113
O. Naida10
LSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113LSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830LSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133LSep 1 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.101111113O. Naida1.679940WSep 1 · 24:55O. Naida2.10311511113D. Derevynskyi1.6711211162WAug 31 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.509111110112O. Naida1.50117812133WAug 31 · 22:25O. Naida2.6311612113S. Abalmaz1.447111071
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