TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022692
Played Aug 27Finished
Viacheslav Kovalenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210113112––––
Oleksandr Naida
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Kovalenko above · Oleksandr Naida below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 49 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Viacheslav Kovalenko at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Kovalenko 2–1 Oleksandr Naida Oleksandr Naida has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:19What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1468 vs Naida 1526
Naida
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 40% vs Naida 60%
Naida
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 50% vs Naida 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko -2 · Naida +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kovalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naida form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.57 / Naida 2.25
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kovalenko)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13022692
Kovalenko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 65 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it70% 42 of 60
Naida2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 95 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKovalenko2wins
AwayNaida1wins
Kovalenko leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko2Naida1n = 3Kovalenko took 2 of 3
S2Kovalenko1Naida2n = 3Naida took 2 of 3
S3Kovalenko2Naida1n = 3Kovalenko took 2 of 3
S4Kovalenko2Naida1n = 3Kovalenko took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKovalenkoNaidaK − NBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.032.7+4.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 391 vs 480 / 92642.5%51.8%166 / 391 vs 480 / 926Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.57/Naida 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 25 · 24:25V. Kovalenko—11911113O. Naida—711611
WJan 21 · 17:55V. Kovalenko—11113113O. Naida—991141
LJan 20 · 18:55V. Kovalenko—781171O. Naida—11117113
V. Kovalenko10
WSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.9171171182O. Mishchenko1.80117113113WSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:55V. Kovalenko2.109111211113P. Plakushchyi1.6711514482WSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 28 · 03:25V. Kovalenko1.401111113V. Khamurda2.758780WAug 28 · 01:55V. Kovalenko1.83111169123R. Gnoevoy1.83491111102WAug 28 · 24:25V. Kovalenko1.53111511113S. Skachenko2.387131341WAug 27 · 22:55V. Kovalenko1.7311712113S. Abalmaz2.007111091LAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
O. Naida10
LSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113LSep 4 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.001311113O. Naida1.7311830LSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 1 · 03:55O. Naida1.8396110R. Gnoevoy1.831111133LSep 1 · 01:55V. Khamurda2.101111113O. Naida1.679940WSep 1 · 24:55O. Naida2.10311511113D. Derevynskyi1.6711211162WAug 31 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko2.509111110112O. Naida1.50117812133WAug 31 · 22:25O. Naida2.6311612113S. Abalmaz1.447111071
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