TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061920
Played Sep 2Finished
Viacheslav Kovalenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111151214114118
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:13 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingViacheslav Kovalenko above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 59.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Kovalenko 3–4 Pavel Plakushchyi Viacheslav Kovalenko has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:13What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Plakushchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1561 vs Plakushchyi 1652
Plakushchyi
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 100% vs Plakushchyi 80%
Kovalenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 80% vs Plakushchyi 50%
Kovalenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +5 · Plakushchyi +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Plakushchyi) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 2.10 / Plakushchyi 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Plakushchyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13061920
Kovalenko2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog36% won 64 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 57
Plakushchyi1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 41 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it83% 30 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKovalenko3wins
AwayPlakushchyi4wins
1 of 7 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko50%2 of 4
AwayPlakushchyi66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko4Plakushchyi3n = 7Kovalenko took 4 of 7
S2Kovalenko2Plakushchyi5n = 7Plakushchyi took 5 of 7
S3Kovalenko4Plakushchyi3n = 7Kovalenko took 4 of 7
S4Kovalenko3Plakushchyi3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKovalenkoPlakushchyiK − PBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match37.038.6−1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 396 vs 302 / 67343.2%44.9%171 / 396 vs 302 / 673Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiKovalenko 2.10/Plakushchyi 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 26 · 15:55V. Kovalenko—11811113P. Plakushchyi—811371
LAug 20 · 17:55V. Kovalenko—111111792P. Plakushchyi—413611113
WAug 19 · 21:55V. Kovalenko—11921113P. Plakushchyi—7111991
LJul 30 · 03:55V. Kovalenko—711851P. Plakushchyi—11911113
WApr 23 · 01:25V. Kovalenko—61111113P. Plakushchyi—115991
LFeb 26 · 22:55V. Kovalenko—118641P. Plakushchyi—81111113
LFeb 10 · 23:55V. Kovalenko—5580P. Plakushchyi—1111113
V. Kovalenko10
WSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.9171171182O. Mishchenko1.80117113113WSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 28 · 03:25V. Kovalenko1.401111113V. Khamurda2.758780WAug 28 · 01:55V. Kovalenko1.83111169123R. Gnoevoy1.83491111102WAug 28 · 24:25V. Kovalenko1.53111511113S. Skachenko2.387131341WAug 27 · 22:55V. Kovalenko1.7311712113S. Abalmaz2.007111091WAug 27 · 21:25V. Kovalenko1.571211113O. Naida2.2510320LAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732LSep 4 · 18:25P. Plakushchyi3.50411116122Y. Kryvorotko1.28115311143WSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481LSep 4 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi2.25101050O. Gavryshko1.571212113WSep 4 · 13:55P. Plakushchyi2.3811811113A. Chepurnyi1.53811761LSep 3 · 19:55P. Plakushchyi1.7341080O. Mishchenko2.001112113LSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672LSep 3 · 16:55P. Plakushchyi3.75581111102M. Makienko1.25111184123LSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070WSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781
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