TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061799
Played Sep 3Finished
Viacheslav Kovalenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1196111181311––
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Kovalenko above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 80 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Viacheslav Kovalenko at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Kovalenko 26–38 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Viacheslav Kovalenko has won 26 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:32What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-38 in 64
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 12 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1575 vs Kovalchuk 1426
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 100% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Kovalenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 80% vs Kovalchuk 20%
Kovalenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +5 · Kovalchuk +1
Kovalenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.91 / Kovalchuk 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13061799
Kovalenko1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 64 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 57
Kovalchuk1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite52% won 65 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it73% 46 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko2wins
AwayKovalchuk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko50%2 of 4
AwayKovalchuk100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalenko3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S3Kovalenko2Kovalchuk8n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S4Kovalenko2Kovalchuk5n = 7Kovalchuk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoKovalchukKovalenko − KovalchukBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.638.8−4.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 398 vs 332 / 78743.5%42.2%173 / 398 vs 332 / 787Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.91/Kovalchuk 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 16:25V. Kovalenko—10101171O. Kovalchuk—12128113
WAug 12 · 21:55V. Kovalenko—11115113O. Kovalchuk—871131
LAug 12 · 02:55V. Kovalenko—1111861O. Kovalchuk—91311113
WAug 6 · 16:25V. Kovalenko—117114113O. Kovalchuk—91171182
LAug 6 · 04:25V. Kovalenko—811911132O. Kovalchuk—115114153
LJul 30 · 13:55V. Kovalenko—12880O. Kovalchuk—1411113
LJul 29 · 23:55V. Kovalenko—117541O. Kovalchuk—41111113
LJul 23 · 14:55V. Kovalenko—31180O. Kovalchuk—1113113
LJul 23 · 02:25V. Kovalenko—1311761O. Kovalchuk—15211113
LJul 16 · 02:55V. Kovalenko—7890O. Kovalchuk—1111113
V. Kovalenko10
WSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.9171171182O. Mishchenko1.80117113113WSep 2 · 23:55V. Kovalenko2.109111211113P. Plakushchyi1.6711514482WSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 28 · 03:25V. Kovalenko1.401111113V. Khamurda2.758780WAug 28 · 01:55V. Kovalenko1.83111169123R. Gnoevoy1.83491111102WAug 28 · 24:25V. Kovalenko1.53111511113S. Skachenko2.387131341WAug 27 · 22:55V. Kovalenko1.7311712113S. Abalmaz2.007111091WAug 27 · 21:25V. Kovalenko1.571211113O. Naida2.2510320LAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113LSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541LSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270WSep 3 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk2.63811511113O. Mishchenko1.4411911962LSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781LSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.539111111113O. Kovalchuk2.3811981372LSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 2 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.444111061O. Kovalchuk2.6311512113LSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 20:25O. Mishchenko1.53111070O. Kovalchuk2.381312113
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