TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067582
Played Sep 3Finished
Serhii Ponomarenko
Home
1.02
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11811712141210––
Eduard Rubtsov
Away
12.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:19 and never touched — 92.9% is still 92.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
92.9%
92.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Eduard Rubtsov below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 85 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 92.9%
85 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.01 (92%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1887 vs Rubtsov 1449
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 438 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Rubtsov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 70% vs Rubtsov 50%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +2 · Rubtsov +3
Rubtsov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 93% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rubtsov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (8%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.01 / Rubtsov 12.00
Signal prob.93% / 7%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+1.1pp
Setka Cup · #13067582
Ponomarenko1.01
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite88% won 313 of 357
Up 2–0, closes it100% 208 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it95% 259 of 273
Rubtsov12.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 98 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoRubtsovBasisWin rate · lifetime783 / 871 vs 300 / 77489.9%38.8%783 / 871 vs 300 / 774Avg sets wonper match2.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.01/Rubtsov 12.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
93.3%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ponomarenko won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 3 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko1.20113911113P. Plakushchyi4.3351111672WSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270LSep 3 · 14:55S. Ponomarenko2.008580M. Makienko1.731111113WSep 3 · 13:25S. Ponomarenko1.101111113O. Mishchenko6.508880LSep 3 · 04:25O. Mishchenko7.0011114113S. Ponomarenko1.08981171WSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692WSep 3 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi3.751110981S. Ponomarenko1.2551211113WSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113LSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 29 · 10:35S. Ponomarenko1.071111113S. Balabei7.506690
E. Rubtsov10
WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113LSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 01:55E. Rubtsov3.258680P. Plakushchyi1.331111113LSep 3 · 24:25E. Rubtsov3.251311281O. Mishchenko1.3315911113LSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113WSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov2.00111158113O. Kovalchuk1.7397111162WAug 26 · 19:55V. Kovalenko1.61139551E. Rubtsov2.20111111113
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