TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088652
Played Sep 7Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111012911––––
Anatolii Lievshin
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:54 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Anatolii Lievshin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 55.3%
59 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 12–4 Anatolii Lievshin Anatolii Lievshin has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Marushchak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Marushchak
Wrong
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1716 vs Lievshin 1707
Marushchak
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 80% vs Lievshin 60%
Marushchak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 60% vs Lievshin 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak -1 · Lievshin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Marushchak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.73 / Lievshin 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Marushchak)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13088652
Marushchak1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 75 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it100% 43 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it81% 59 of 73
Lievshin2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 53 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back23% 11 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarushchak8wins
AwayLievshin2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak100%6 of 6
AwayLievshin50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak6Lievshin4n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S2Marushchak6Lievshin4n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S3Marushchak5Lievshin5n = 10split evenly
S4Marushchak4Lievshin2n = 6Marushchak took 4 of 6
S5Marushchak3Lievshin0n = 3Marushchak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarushchakLievshinM − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.035.0+4.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakLievshinBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 632 vs 167 / 29747.6%56.2%301 / 632 vs 167 / 297Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.73/Lievshin 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lievshin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak—11118113A. Lievshin—821161
WSep 2 · 06:20V. Marushchak—1211711123A. Lievshin—1013118102
WSep 1 · 12:30V. Marushchak—1811113A. Lievshin—16890
WAug 31 · 14:10V. Marushchak—1111113A. Lievshin—7450
WAug 28 · 11:10V. Marushchak—11611113A. Lievshin—811861
WAug 25 · 12:30V. Marushchak—311129123A. Lievshin—1161011102
WAug 24 · 11:40V. Marushchak—9111411113A. Lievshin—115121372
LAug 21 · 15:40V. Marushchak—6880A. Lievshin—1111113
LAug 18 · 13:00V. Marushchak—10840A. Lievshin—1211113
WAug 17 · 11:40V. Marushchak—11114113A. Lievshin—651141
V. Marushchak10
LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133WSep 4 · 11:40V. Marushchak1.571111113V. Savoliuk2.259750LSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113LSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.918460A. Yurkov1.801111113WSep 2 · 08:20V. Marushchak2.001111811113O. Seliuchenko1.7313911682WSep 2 · 06:20V. Marushchak1.671211711123A. Lievshin2.101013118102
A. Lievshin10
LSep 4 · 17:40V. Savoliuk2.2511811113A. Lievshin1.57811961WSep 4 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.7351111113A. Yurkov2.00118861LSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 12:10V. Voronenko1.912870A. Lievshin1.801111113WSep 4 · 11:10A. Hrabskyi3.755511101A. Lievshin1.2511119123WSep 2 · 12:50A. Hrabskyi3.403560A. Lievshin1.301111113WSep 2 · 11:20A. Lievshin1.8011611113A. Yurkov1.91711961WSep 2 · 09:20O. Seliuchenko1.801111411A. Lievshin1.9113811113WSep 2 · 07:20Y. Shmyndra1.73811561A. Lievshin2.0011511113LSep 2 · 06:20V. Marushchak1.671211711123A. Lievshin2.101013118102
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