TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089261
Played Sep 7Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111176111171012
Oleksandr Kolbasenko
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Oleksandr Kolbasenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 94 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 59.3%
94 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 28–12 Oleksandr Kolbasenko Oleksandr Kolbasenko has won 12 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:42What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Marushchak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-12 in 40
Marushchak
Wrong
gap of 16 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1702 vs Kolbasenko 1711
Kolbasenko
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 60% vs Kolbasenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 50% vs Kolbasenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak -2 · Kolbasenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Marushchak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbasenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.61 / Kolbasenko 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Marushchak)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13089261
Marushchak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 75 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it100% 43 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it81% 59 of 73
Kolbasenko2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 24 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarushchak7wins
AwayKolbasenko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak100%5 of 5
AwayKolbasenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak5Kolbasenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Marushchak6Kolbasenko4n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S3Marushchak7Kolbasenko3n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S4Marushchak5Kolbasenko0n = 5Marushchak took 5 of 5
S5Marushchak2Kolbasenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarushchakKolbasenkoM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.834.8+5.0per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakKolbasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 633 vs 168 / 31947.6%52.7%301 / 633 vs 168 / 319Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.61/Kolbasenko 2.20
Miss
What we said
59.3%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolbasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 13:10V. Marushchak—91161172O. Kolbasenko—115116113
WAug 17 · 13:10V. Marushchak—1091111113O. Kolbasenko—12112492
WAug 10 · 15:10V. Marushchak—111413123O. Kolbasenko—81215101
WAug 3 · 11:10V. Marushchak—1111113O. Kolbasenko—7870
WJul 6 · 17:10V. Marushchak—1114113O. Kolbasenko—91230
WJun 30 · 14:30V. Marushchak—1312123O. Kolbasenko—1110100
WJun 26 · 15:40V. Marushchak—1111113O. Kolbasenko—6340
LJun 12 · 14:40V. Marushchak—78111192O. Kolbasenko—111136113
WMay 29 · 14:10V. Marushchak—511111163O. Kolbasenko—111199142
LMay 25 · 15:10V. Marushchak—66110O. Kolbasenko—1111133
V. Marushchak10
LSep 7 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.7361090A. Lievshin2.001112113LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133WSep 4 · 11:40V. Marushchak1.571111113V. Savoliuk2.259750LSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113LSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.918460A. Yurkov1.801111113WSep 2 · 08:20V. Marushchak2.001111811113O. Seliuchenko1.7313911682
O. Kolbasenko10
WSep 7 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko1.671111113A. Lievshin2.106850WSep 7 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko2.10811139113A. Yurkov1.67116111102LAug 26 · 12:20O. Kolbasenko2.1081141192A. Yurkov1.67114118113WAug 26 · 10:20V. Mishchenko2.385730O. Kolbasenko1.531111113WAug 26 · 09:20O. Kolbasenko1.7311116113A. Lievshin2.00671171LAug 26 · 08:20O. Seliuchenko1.9111611113O. Kolbasenko1.80611741WAug 26 · 06:50O. Kolbasenko1.507111111113A. Hrabskyi2.5011136652LAug 24 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.6311811113O. Kolbasenko1.44511821LAug 24 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko1.5711118692A. Lievshin2.25671111113WAug 24 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko1.50116158123A. Hrabskyi2.506111311102
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