TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015041
Played Aug 26Finished
Oleksandr Kolbasenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111113116116115
Andrii Hrabskyi
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Kolbasenko to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Kolbasenko above · Andrii Hrabskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 92 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Oleksandr Kolbasenko at 66.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolbasenko 23–5 Andrii Hrabskyi Andrii Hrabskyi has won 5 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kolbasenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-5 in 28
Kolbasenko
Correct
gap of 18 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbasenko 1702 vs Hrabskyi 1692
Kolbasenko
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbasenko 40% vs Hrabskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbasenko 50% vs Hrabskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbasenko -2 · Hrabskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kolbasenko) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbasenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbasenko 1.50 / Hrabskyi 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kolbasenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13015041
Kolbasenko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite71% won 67 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Hrabskyi2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 115 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back26% 42 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbasenko8wins
AwayHrabskyi2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolbasenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbasenko100%3 of 3
AwayHrabskyi28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbasenko3Hrabskyi7n = 10Hrabskyi took 7 of 10
S2Kolbasenko7Hrabskyi3n = 10Kolbasenko took 7 of 10
S3Kolbasenko7Hrabskyi3n = 10Kolbasenko took 7 of 10
S4Kolbasenko5Hrabskyi4n = 9Kolbasenko took 5 of 9
S5Kolbasenko4Hrabskyi0n = 4Kolbasenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbasenkoHrabskyiK − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.537.9+4.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbasenkoHrabskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 323 vs 213 / 48152.9%44.3%171 / 323 vs 213 / 481Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolbasenkoKolbasenko 1.50/Hrabskyi 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Kolbasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolbasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 06:50O. Kolbasenko—7111111113A. Hrabskyi—11136652
WAug 24 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko—116158123A. Hrabskyi—6111311102
WAug 17 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko—111311113A. Hrabskyi—1311771
LAug 10 · 10:40O. Kolbasenko—991261A. Hrabskyi—111110113
WAug 3 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko—111112113A. Hrabskyi—1391071
WJul 27 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko—11118113A. Hrabskyi—741191
LJul 6 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko—311981A. Hrabskyi—11511113
WJun 19 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko—512511113A. Hrabskyi—111011662
WJun 12 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko—611117113A. Hrabskyi—11271182
WMay 29 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko—1111113A. Hrabskyi—8520
O. Kolbasenko10
WSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123WSep 7 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko2.10811139113A. Yurkov1.67116111102LAug 26 · 12:20O. Kolbasenko2.1081141192A. Yurkov1.67114118113WAug 26 · 10:20V. Mishchenko2.385730O. Kolbasenko1.531111113WAug 26 · 09:20O. Kolbasenko1.7311116113A. Lievshin2.00671171LAug 26 · 08:20O. Seliuchenko1.9111611113O. Kolbasenko1.80611741LAug 24 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.6311811113O. Kolbasenko1.44511821LAug 24 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko1.5711118692A. Lievshin2.25671111113WAug 24 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko1.50116158123A. Hrabskyi2.506111311102WAug 24 · 13:10O. Kolbasenko2.25115116113V. Marushchak1.5791161172
A. Hrabskyi10
LSep 7 · 13:40A. Hrabskyi2.20714101272A. Yurkov1.6111121210113WSep 7 · 12:10A. Hrabskyi3.75138115113A. Lievshin1.25111181172WSep 7 · 10:40A. Hrabskyi1.73114411113P. Plakushchyi2.0071111892WSep 4 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.2591111782A. Hrabskyi1.57116711113WSep 4 · 15:40A. Hrabskyi1.611112113V. Savoliuk2.2091060WSep 4 · 14:40A. Hrabskyi2.101116123A. Yurkov1.67614100LSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133LSep 4 · 11:10A. Hrabskyi3.755511101A. Lievshin1.2511119123LSep 2 · 12:50A. Hrabskyi3.403560A. Lievshin1.301111113LAug 24 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko1.50116158123A. Hrabskyi2.506111311102
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