TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482207
Played Aug 24Finished
Oleksandr Kolbasenko
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119511116611117
Vitalii S Marushchak
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:26 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Kolbasenko above · Vitalii S Marushchak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 55.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolbasenko 11–27 Vitalii S Marushchak Oleksandr Kolbasenko has won 11 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:26What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Marushchak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-27 in 38
Marushchak
Wrong
gap of 16 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbasenko 1698 vs Marushchak 1664
Kolbasenko
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbasenko 40% vs Marushchak 80%
Marushchak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbasenko 40% vs Marushchak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbasenko -1 · Marushchak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Marushchak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbasenko 2.25 / Marushchak 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Marushchak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482207
Kolbasenko2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 23 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Marushchak1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 69 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it100% 39 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it82% 54 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolbasenko4wins
AwayMarushchak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbasenko75%3 of 4
AwayMarushchak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbasenko4Marushchak6n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S2Kolbasenko4Marushchak6n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S3Kolbasenko3Marushchak7n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S4Kolbasenko2Marushchak3n = 5Marushchak took 3 of 5
S5Kolbasenko2Marushchak1n = 3Kolbasenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolbasenkoMarushchakK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.138.1−2.0per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbasenkoMarushchakBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 319 vs 288 / 61853%46.6%169 / 319 vs 288 / 618Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakKolbasenko 2.25/Marushchak 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolbasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 15:10O. Kolbasenko—81215101V. Marushchak—111413123
LAug 3 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko—7870V. Marushchak—1111113
LJul 6 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko—91230V. Marushchak—1114113
LJun 30 · 14:30O. Kolbasenko—1110100V. Marushchak—1312123
LJun 26 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko—6340V. Marushchak—1111113
WJun 12 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko—111136113V. Marushchak—78111192
LMay 29 · 14:10O. Kolbasenko—111199142V. Marushchak—511111163
WMay 25 · 15:10O. Kolbasenko—1111133V. Marushchak—66110
WMay 18 · 17:40O. Kolbasenko—911711143V. Marushchak—114118122
WMay 15 · 16:13O. Kolbasenko—13811113V. Marushchak—1111651
O. Kolbasenko10
WSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123WSep 7 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko2.10811139113A. Yurkov1.67116111102LAug 26 · 12:20O. Kolbasenko2.1081141192A. Yurkov1.67114118113WAug 26 · 10:20V. Mishchenko2.385730O. Kolbasenko1.531111113WAug 26 · 09:20O. Kolbasenko1.7311116113A. Lievshin2.00671171LAug 26 · 08:20O. Seliuchenko1.9111611113O. Kolbasenko1.80611741WAug 26 · 06:50O. Kolbasenko1.507111111113A. Hrabskyi2.5011136652LAug 24 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.6311811113O. Kolbasenko1.44511821LAug 24 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko1.5711118692A. Lievshin2.25671111113WAug 24 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko1.50116158123A. Hrabskyi2.506111311102
V. Marushchak10
LSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123LSep 7 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.7361090A. Lievshin2.001112113LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133WSep 4 · 11:40V. Marushchak1.571111113V. Savoliuk2.259750LSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113LSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.918460A. Yurkov1.801111113
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