TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482416
Played Aug 24Finished
Oleksandr Kolbasenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116117811611911
Anatolii Lievshin
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:07 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Kolbasenko to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Kolbasenko above · Anatolii Lievshin below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 91 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Kolbasenko at 60.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolbasenko 1–1 Anatolii Lievshin Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kolbasenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kolbasenko 1717 vs Lievshin 1728
Lievshin
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbasenko 60% vs Lievshin 80%
Lievshin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbasenko 60% vs Lievshin 40%
Kolbasenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbasenko +2 · Lievshin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kolbasenko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lievshin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbasenko 1.57 / Lievshin 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Kolbasenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482416
Kolbasenko1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 63 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it84% 48 of 57
Lievshin2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 48 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKolbasenko1wins
AwayLievshin1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKolbasenkoLievshinK − LBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.035.5+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbasenkoLievshinBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 321 vs 149 / 26153.3%57.1%171 / 321 vs 149 / 261Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolbasenkoKolbasenko 1.57/Lievshin 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Kolbasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lievshin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 17 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko—111211382A. Lievshin—7101311113
WMay 4 · 15:09O. Kolbasenko—1111113A. Lievshin—4780
O. Kolbasenko10
WSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123WSep 7 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko2.10811139113A. Yurkov1.67116111102LAug 26 · 12:20O. Kolbasenko2.1081141192A. Yurkov1.67114118113WAug 26 · 10:20V. Mishchenko2.385730O. Kolbasenko1.531111113WAug 26 · 09:20O. Kolbasenko1.7311116113A. Lievshin2.00671171LAug 26 · 08:20O. Seliuchenko1.9111611113O. Kolbasenko1.80611741WAug 26 · 06:50O. Kolbasenko1.507111111113A. Hrabskyi2.5011136652LAug 24 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.6311811113O. Kolbasenko1.44511821WAug 24 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko1.50116158123A. Hrabskyi2.506111311102WAug 24 · 13:10O. Kolbasenko2.25115116113V. Marushchak1.5791161172
A. Lievshin10
LSep 7 · 12:10A. Hrabskyi3.75138115113A. Lievshin1.25111181172WSep 7 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.7361090A. Lievshin2.001112113LSep 4 · 17:40V. Savoliuk2.2511811113A. Lievshin1.57811961WSep 4 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.7351111113A. Yurkov2.00118861LSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 12:10V. Voronenko1.912870A. Lievshin1.801111113WSep 4 · 11:10A. Hrabskyi3.755511101A. Lievshin1.2511119123WSep 2 · 12:50A. Hrabskyi3.403560A. Lievshin1.301111113WSep 2 · 11:20A. Lievshin1.8011611113A. Yurkov1.91711961LAug 26 · 09:20O. Kolbasenko1.7311116113A. Lievshin2.00671171
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