TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13014956
Played Aug 26Finished
Oleksandr Kolbasenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116117611117––
Anatolii Lievshin
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Lievshin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Kolbasenko above · Anatolii Lievshin below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 70 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Anatolii Lievshin at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolbasenko 1–2 Anatolii Lievshin Oleksandr Kolbasenko has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolbasenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbasenko 1692 vs Lievshin 1727
Lievshin
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbasenko 40% vs Lievshin 80%
Lievshin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbasenko 50% vs Lievshin 70%
Lievshin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbasenko -1 · Lievshin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolbasenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lievshin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbasenko 1.73 / Lievshin 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolbasenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13014956
Kolbasenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 64 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it83% 49 of 59
Lievshin2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog54% won 50 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back25% 11 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKolbasenko1wins
AwayLievshin2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderLievshin leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbasenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayLievshinn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbasenko3Lievshin0n = 3Kolbasenko took 3 of 3
S2Kolbasenko3Lievshin0n = 3Kolbasenko took 3 of 3
S3Kolbasenko1Lievshin2n = 3Lievshin took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKolbasenkoLievshinK − LBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match41.039.0+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbasenkoLievshinBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 320 vs 154 / 26952.8%57.3%169 / 320 vs 154 / 269Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolbasenkoKolbasenko 1.73/Lievshin 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kolbasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolbasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 24 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko—11118692A. Lievshin—671111113
LAug 17 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko—111211382A. Lievshin—7101311113
WMay 4 · 15:09O. Kolbasenko—1111113A. Lievshin—4780
O. Kolbasenko10
WSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123WSep 7 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko2.10811139113A. Yurkov1.67116111102LAug 26 · 12:20O. Kolbasenko2.1081141192A. Yurkov1.67114118113WAug 26 · 10:20V. Mishchenko2.385730O. Kolbasenko1.531111113LAug 26 · 08:20O. Seliuchenko1.9111611113O. Kolbasenko1.80611741WAug 26 · 06:50O. Kolbasenko1.507111111113A. Hrabskyi2.5011136652LAug 24 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.6311811113O. Kolbasenko1.44511821LAug 24 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko1.5711118692A. Lievshin2.25671111113WAug 24 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko1.50116158123A. Hrabskyi2.506111311102WAug 24 · 13:10O. Kolbasenko2.25115116113V. Marushchak1.5791161172
A. Lievshin10
LSep 7 · 12:10A. Hrabskyi3.75138115113A. Lievshin1.25111181172WSep 7 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.7361090A. Lievshin2.001112113LSep 4 · 17:40V. Savoliuk2.2511811113A. Lievshin1.57811961WSep 4 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.7351111113A. Yurkov2.00118861LSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 12:10V. Voronenko1.912870A. Lievshin1.801111113WSep 4 · 11:10A. Hrabskyi3.755511101A. Lievshin1.2511119123WSep 2 · 12:50A. Hrabskyi3.403560A. Lievshin1.301111113WSep 2 · 11:20A. Lievshin1.8011611113A. Yurkov1.91711961WAug 24 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko1.5711118692A. Lievshin2.25671111113
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