TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089023
Played Sep 7Finished
Oleksandr Kolbasenko
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118115––––
Anatolii Lievshin
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:41 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Kolbasenko to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Kolbasenko above · Anatolii Lievshin below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 52 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Oleksandr Kolbasenko at 55.8%
52 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolbasenko 2–2 Anatolii Lievshin Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:41What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kolbasenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbasenko 1721 vs Lievshin 1709
Kolbasenko
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbasenko 80% vs Lievshin 40%
Kolbasenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbasenko 60% vs Lievshin 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbasenko +2 · Lievshin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kolbasenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbasenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbasenko 1.67 / Lievshin 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kolbasenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13089023
Kolbasenko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 66 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it85% 50 of 59
Lievshin2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 53 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back23% 11 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKolbasenko2wins
AwayLievshin2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbasenko50%2 of 4
AwayLievshinn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbasenko4Lievshin0n = 4Kolbasenko took 4 of 4
S2Kolbasenko4Lievshin0n = 4Kolbasenko took 4 of 4
S3Kolbasenko1Lievshin3n = 4Lievshin took 3 of 4
S4Kolbasenko1Lievshin2n = 3Lievshin took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKolbasenkoLievshinK − LBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match40.537.0+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbasenkoLievshinBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 320 vs 168 / 29952.8%56.2%169 / 320 vs 168 / 299Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolbasenkoKolbasenko 1.67/Lievshin 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Kolbasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolbasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 26 · 09:20O. Kolbasenko—11116113A. Lievshin—671171
LAug 24 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko—11118692A. Lievshin—671111113
LAug 17 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko—111211382A. Lievshin—7101311113
WMay 4 · 15:09O. Kolbasenko—1111113A. Lievshin—4780
O. Kolbasenko10
WSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123WSep 7 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko2.10811139113A. Yurkov1.67116111102LAug 26 · 12:20O. Kolbasenko2.1081141192A. Yurkov1.67114118113WAug 26 · 10:20V. Mishchenko2.385730O. Kolbasenko1.531111113WAug 26 · 09:20O. Kolbasenko1.7311116113A. Lievshin2.00671171LAug 26 · 08:20O. Seliuchenko1.9111611113O. Kolbasenko1.80611741WAug 26 · 06:50O. Kolbasenko1.507111111113A. Hrabskyi2.5011136652LAug 24 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.6311811113O. Kolbasenko1.44511821LAug 24 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko1.5711118692A. Lievshin2.25671111113WAug 24 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko1.50116158123A. Hrabskyi2.506111311102
A. Lievshin10
LSep 7 · 12:10A. Hrabskyi3.75138115113A. Lievshin1.25111181172WSep 7 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.7361090A. Lievshin2.001112113LSep 4 · 17:40V. Savoliuk2.2511811113A. Lievshin1.57811961WSep 4 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.7351111113A. Yurkov2.00118861LSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 12:10V. Voronenko1.912870A. Lievshin1.801111113WSep 4 · 11:10A. Hrabskyi3.755511101A. Lievshin1.2511119123WSep 2 · 12:50A. Hrabskyi3.403560A. Lievshin1.301111113LAug 26 · 09:20O. Kolbasenko1.7311116113A. Lievshin2.00671171WAug 24 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko1.5711118692A. Lievshin2.25671111113
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